Okta, Inc. (OKTA)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 15:36 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,940 contracts, 17 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±8.6% (range 149.84–177.99) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 14.07 @ strike 165 · ATM IV: 52.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147.52 | -10% | 82.6% | 17.4% |
| 155.71 | -5% | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 163.91 | +0% | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 172.11 | +5% | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| 180.30 | +10% | 17.1% | 82.9% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±3.3% | 70.4% | 17.2K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±6.1% | 50.1% | 8,486 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±8.6% | 52.4% | 68.2K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±10.5% | 53.2% | 2,873 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±12.2% | 53.9% | 3,570 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±13.5% | 53.4% | 315 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±14.9% | 54.2% | 5,505 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50 | ±15.9% | 53.5% | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 78 | ±19.7% | 53.4% | 9,597 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±26.2% | 61.0% | 23.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±28.6% | 59.3% | 36.5K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 169 | ±31.0% | 57.3% | 1,726 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 180 C · 3,239200 C · 3,121170 C · 3,099160 P · 2,655130 P · 2,576
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 15.7% · median 14.9% (21 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Okta, Inc.
Okta, Inc. delivers comprehensive identity management solutions tailored for a diverse clientele, including large corporations, small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, charitable organizations, and governmental bodies, operating both within the United States and globally. The company's flagship offering is the Okta Identity Cloud, a robust platform featuring a suite of integrated products and services. These include a Universal Directory, a cloud-based system designed to securely store and manage user, application, and device profiles; Single Sign-On (SSO), enabling seamless access to cloud-based or on-premises applications from multiple devices; and Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication, which adds an extra layer of security for various applications and data. Further components encompass Lifecycle Management for overseeing a user's digital identity journey, API Access Management for securing interfaces, an Access Gateway to extend cloud capabilities to on-premises applications, and Advanced Server Access for safeguarding cloud infrastructure. Additionally, Okta incorporates Auth0's product portfolio. This includes Universal Login for consistent user authenticat
Technology · Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities — Technology
NVDA · IV 32.6%AAPL · IV 24.4%AVGO · IV 34.9%PLTR · IV 48.0%MU · IV 60.6%MSTR · IV 74.0%