State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:36 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (4,446 contracts, 19 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±3.5% (range 500.80–537.40) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 18.30 @ strike 519 · ATM IV: 14.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 467.19 | -10% | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| 493.14 | -5% | 88.6% | 11.4% |
| 519.10 | +0% | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 545.06 | +5% | 11.7% | 88.3% |
| 571.01 | +10% | 1.1% | 98.9% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±1.6% | 13.9% | 35.3K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±2.3% | 14.3% | 19.9K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±2.8% | 14.3% | 11.1K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±3.2% | 14.2% | 6,526 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±3.5% | 14.1% | 35.1K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±3.8% | 13.9% | 867 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±4.8% | 14.4% | 115.4K |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 73 | ±5.3% | 14.3% | 33.4K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±5.8% | 14.5% | 96.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±8.0% | 15.2% | 19.4K |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 163 | ±8.2% | 15.1% | 26.0K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 510 P · 9,555540 C · 7,791670 C · 7,366675 C · 7,342500 P · 6,560
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 111 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 55.0% of the time.
About State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust is an exchange traded fund launched and managed by State Street Global Advisors, Inc. It invests in public equity markets of the United States. It invests in stocks of companies operating across energy, real estate, materials, industrials, capital goods, commercial and professional services, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health care, financials, information technology, communication services sectors. The fund invests in growth and value stocks of large-cap companies. The fund seeks to track the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, by using full replication technique. State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust was formed on January 13, 1998 and is domiciled in the United States.
ETF · Asset Management · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities · ETF
SPY · IV 14.6%QQQ · IV 22.6%IWM · IV 19.9%TLT · IV 14.4%EWZ · IV 59.4%TQQQ · IV 65.7%