Okta, Inc. (OKTA)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 15:42 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,786 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±14.4% (range 163.54–218.69) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 27.57 @ strike 190 · ATM IV: 60.9%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172.00 | -10% | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 181.56 | -5% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 191.11 | -0% | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 200.67 | +5% | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| 210.22 | +10% | 26.8% | 73.2% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±6.0% | 70.2% | 11.8K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±9.1% | 64.9% | 4,780 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±11.1% | 61.9% | 2,147 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±12.5% | 59.8% | 484 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±14.4% | 60.9% | 22.2K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±15.1% | 58.1% | 288 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±22.8% | 70.6% | 28.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±26.0% | 66.7% | 40.8K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±29.1% | 63.3% | 4,049 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±34.4% | 67.7% | 7,338 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 240 C · 2,595200 C · 1,962190 P · 1,766130 P · 1,765210 C · 1,647
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 37.6% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 15.7% · median 14.9% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Okta, Inc.
Okta, Inc. delivers comprehensive identity management solutions tailored for a diverse clientele, including large corporations, small and medium-sized businesses, educational institutions, charitable organizations, and governmental bodies, operating both within the United States and globally. The company's flagship offering is the Okta Identity Cloud, a robust platform featuring a suite of integrated products and services. These include a Universal Directory, a cloud-based system designed to securely store and manage user, application, and device profiles; Single Sign-On (SSO), enabling seamless access to cloud-based or on-premises applications from multiple devices; and Adaptive Multi-Factor Authentication, which adds an extra layer of security for various applications and data. Further components encompass Lifecycle Management for overseeing a user's digital identity journey, API Access Management for securing interfaces, an Access Gateway to extend cloud capabilities to on-premises applications, and Advanced Server Access for safeguarding cloud infrastructure. Additionally, Okta incorporates Auth0's product portfolio. This includes Universal Login for consistent user authenticat
Technology · Software - Infrastructure · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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