Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:33 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (970 contracts, 13 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±17.7% (range 60.19–86.14) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 12.97 @ strike 72.5 · ATM IV: 71.3%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65.85 | -10% | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 69.51 | -5% | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 73.16 | -0% | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 76.82 | +5% | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| 80.48 | +10% | 28.9% | 71.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±7.7% | 67.9% | 10.6K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±10.5% | 66.3% | 6,172 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±16.1% | 83.4% | 5,698 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±16.9% | 76.1% | 1,190 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±17.7% | 71.3% | 34.9K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±18.7% | 68.8% | 322 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±21.8% | 65.7% | 43.6K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±23.5% | 58.7% | 63.7K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±30.0% | 64.1% | 3,925 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±31.8% | 61.6% | 18.2K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 80 C · 6,992100 C · 5,30455 P · 4,43885 C · 3,95475 C · 3,785
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 79.6% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 16.3% · median 12.5% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Affirm Holdings, Inc.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. provides a digital and mobile-first commerce platform that operates across the United States and Canada. This platform offers consumers a point-of-sale financing solution, delivers various tools for merchants, and includes a dedicated mobile application for users. Leveraging its payment network and partnerships with originating banks, the company enables customers to spread the cost of their purchases over time, with payment terms ranging from a single month up to forty-eight months. By June 30, 2021, approximately 29,000 merchants had integrated Affirm's services, representing a diverse array of businesses from small enterprises and large corporations to direct-to-consumer brands and traditional physical stores. These businesses span numerous industries, including sporting goods, home furnishings, travel, apparel, accessories, consumer electronics, and jewelry. Affirm was founded in 2012 and is based in San Francisco, California.
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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