Cummins Inc. (CMI)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:35 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (548 contracts, 5 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.1% (range 477.93–584.73) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 53.40 @ strike 530 · ATM IV: 40.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 478.20 | -10% | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 504.76 | -5% | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 531.33 | +0% | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 557.90 | +5% | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 584.46 | +10% | 19.5% | 80.5% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±10.1% | 40.2% | 2,953 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±12.1% | 36.4% | 5,701 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±18.2% | 35.3% | 3,855 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 500 P · 804530 P · 610510 P · 576590 C · 316500 C · 287
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 15 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 80.0% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 4.0% · median 3.8% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Cummins Inc.
Cummins Inc. is a global innovator in power solutions, responsible for the design, manufacturing, distribution, and maintenance of a broad array of diesel and natural gas engines, alongside cutting-edge electric and hybrid powertrains, and associated components. Its operations are strategically divided into five segments: Engine, Distribution, Components, Power Systems, and New Power. The company's extensive engine portfolio, available under the Cummins brand and others, powers a vast range of heavy and medium-duty applications, including commercial trucks, buses, recreational vehicles, light-duty automobiles, construction and mining equipment, marine vessels, railway systems, oil and gas operations, defense, and agriculture. Complementing these engines, Cummins provides both new and remanufactured parts and comprehensive servicing. Beyond its core engine offerings, Cummins delivers sophisticated power generation systems, high-horsepower engines, and specialized application engineering. It also offers custom-designed assemblies, retail and wholesale aftermarket components, and expert repair services conducted both in-shop and on-site. The company's technological scope extends to em
Industrials · Industrial - Machinery · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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