ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:33 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,214 contracts, 12 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.8% (range 73.65–89.65) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 8.00 @ strike 82 · ATM IV: 39.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73.49 | -10% | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| 77.57 | -5% | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| 81.65 | +0% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 85.73 | +5% | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| 89.82 | +10% | 19.1% | 80.9% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.1% | 36.7% | 18.3K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±6.3% | 40.5% | 13.5K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±8.1% | 41.9% | 2,949 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±8.6% | 38.6% | 1,943 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±9.8% | 39.5% | 102.6K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±10.3% | 38.0% | 383 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±13.2% | 39.8% | 69.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±15.2% | 38.1% | 248.4K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±19.6% | 37.8% | 32.4K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 80 P · 29.7K70 P · 14.8K65 P · 11.4K83 P · 10.7K88 P · 9,278
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 72.0% of the time.
About ARK Innovation ETF
The ARKK Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is actively managed, with the primary objective of achieving substantial long-term capital growth. Under typical market conditions, it strategically invests at least 65% of its total assets in equity securities from both domestic and foreign companies that are integral to its central investment theme of disruptive innovation.
ETF · Asset Management · CBOE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities · ETF
SPY · IV 14.6%QQQ · IV 22.6%IWM · IV 19.9%TLT · IV 14.4%EWZ · IV 59.4%TQQQ · IV 65.7%