Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:34 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (770 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.0% (range 23.23–28.43) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 2.60 @ strike 26 · ATM IV: 40.6%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.25 | -10% | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 24.54 | -5% | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 25.83 | +0% | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 27.12 | +5% | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| 28.41 | +10% | 19.7% | 80.3% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.3% | 38.9% | 14.1K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±6.8% | 43.4% | 24.5K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±8.5% | 44.2% | 8,356 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±9.5% | 42.9% | 1,806 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±10.0% | 40.6% | 107.7K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±10.3% | 38.0% | 508 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±13.4% | 40.4% | 253.6K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±15.4% | 38.9% | 249.9K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±21.5% | 41.8% | 92.2K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±23.4% | 41.9% | 10.0K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 25 P · 49.1K27 P · 37.5K22 P · 23.0K21 P · 22.9K20 P · 18.8K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 58.1% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.3% · median 4.5% (22 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Carnival Corporation & plc
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a prominent global entity in the leisure travel sector. Its extensive fleet of vessels navigates to nearly 700 different ports globally, sailing under a diverse portfolio of acclaimed brands such as Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard. Beyond its core cruise operations, the company also provides port services and other related offerings. Its holdings include and it manages hotels, lodges, unique glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. Customers primarily book their cruises through a network of travel agencies, tour operators, vacation planners, and direct online channels. The corporation maintains a broad international presence, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and other global markets. It commands a significant fleet of 87 ships, collectively providing capacity for 223,000 passengers in lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was established in 1972 and has its headquarters situated in Miami, Florida.
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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