Cboe Volatility Index (VIX · index)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 18:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,520 contracts, 13 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 16, 2026 (13 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±13.1% (range 12.65–16.45) by Sep 16, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.90 @ strike 14.5 · ATM IV: 47.9%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10 | -10% | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| 13.82 | -5% | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 14.55 | +0% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 15.28 | +5% | 27.9% | 72.1% |
| 16.01 | +10% | 13.5% | 86.5% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 16, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 09, 2026 | 6 | ±9.2% | 62.6% | 74.3K |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 13 | ±13.1% | 47.9% | 5.35M |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 20 | ±15.7% | 49.5% | 69.4K |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 27 | ±22.3% | 73.8% | 20.6K |
| Oct 07, 2026 | 34 | ±26.1% | 77.2% | 0 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 48 | ±27.5% | 50.3% | 4.46M |
| Nov 18, 2026 | 76 | ±33.6% | 52.0% | 2.11M |
| Dec 16, 2026 | 104 | ±35.9% | 49.7% | 697.5K |
| Jan 20, 2027 | 139 | ±41.8% | 45.4% | 243.8K |
| Feb 17, 2027 | 167 | ±44.9% | 42.6% | 143.3K |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 195 | ±47.3% | 42.7% | 94.5K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 16
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 20 C · 627.9K17 P · 457.3K16 P · 442.3K19 P · 260.8K18 P · 258.6K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.