Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:36 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (764 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±18.3% (range 25.45–36.85) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 5.71 @ strike 30 · ATM IV: 75.8%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.04 | -10% | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 29.59 | -5% | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 31.15 | +0% | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| 32.71 | +5% | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| 34.27 | +10% | 29.5% | 70.5% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±6.4% | 57.7% | 12.5K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±14.8% | 95.2% | 7,043 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±16.3% | 86.0% | 3,948 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±17.8% | 81.5% | 1,805 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±18.3% | 75.8% | 38.8K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±19.4% | 72.8% | 1,132 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±22.7% | 70.3% | 62.4K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±25.7% | 66.2% | 124.0K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±31.9% | 70.3% | 9,954 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 35 P · 12.3K30 P · 10.6K40 P · 7,95240 C · 7,44135 C · 6,997
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 78.5% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 13.6% · median 12.8% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Enphase Energy, Inc.
Enphase Energy, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, is dedicated to developing, manufacturing, and distributing home energy solutions for the global solar photovoltaic industry. Their core offering is a semiconductor-based microinverter, designed to convert energy at the individual solar module level. This technology seamlessly integrates with their proprietary networking and software, providing advanced energy monitoring and control capabilities. The company's product portfolio also includes AC battery storage systems, the Envoy communications gateway, the cloud-based Enlighten monitoring service, and various related accessories. Enphase sells its offerings through multiple channels, reaching solar distributors, large installers directly, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), strategic partners, and individual homeowners, as well as through its legacy product upgrade program and online store. Established in 2006, Enphase Energy, Inc. is headquartered in Fremont, California.
Energy · Solar · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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