Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of Sep 02, 21:50 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (786 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (16 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.4% (range 31.73–39.08) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 3.67 @ strike 35.5 · ATM IV: 61.8%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31.86 | -10% | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 33.63 | -5% | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 35.40 | +0% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 37.17 | +5% | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| 38.94 | +10% | 21.2% | 78.8% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±3.9% | 66.0% | 20.9K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±7.1% | 56.6% | 4,994 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±10.4% | 61.8% | 69.6K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±12.7% | 63.1% | 3,786 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 30 | ±12.3% | 53.7% | 3,678 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 37 | ±16.2% | 63.5% | 308 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±17.2% | 62.0% | 19.2K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 79 | ±27.4% | 74.3% | 25.7K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 107 | ±30.2% | 70.4% | 54.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 135 | ±33.6% | 70.0% | 111.3K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 170 | ±39.3% | 73.1% | 3,971 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 35 P · 15.3K40 P · 9,14440 C · 8,46630 P · 7,36450 C · 6,982
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 13.6% · median 12.8% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Enphase Energy, Inc.
Enphase Energy, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, is dedicated to developing, manufacturing, and distributing home energy solutions for the global solar photovoltaic industry. Their core offering is a semiconductor-based microinverter, designed to convert energy at the individual solar module level. This technology seamlessly integrates with their proprietary networking and software, providing advanced energy monitoring and control capabilities. The company's product portfolio also includes AC battery storage systems, the Envoy communications gateway, the cloud-based Enlighten monitoring service, and various related accessories. Enphase sells its offerings through multiple channels, reaching solar distributors, large installers directly, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), strategic partners, and individual homeowners, as well as through its legacy product upgrade program and online store. Established in 2006, Enphase Energy, Inc. is headquartered in Fremont, California.
Energy · Solar · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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