Cboe Volatility Index (VIX · index)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of Sep 02, 21:55 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,520 contracts, 13 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 16, 2026 (14 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±11.9% (range 13.38–17.02) by Sep 16, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.81 @ strike 15 · ATM IV: 57.8%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.68 | -10% | 80.9% | 19.1% |
| 14.44 | -5% | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 15.20 | +0% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 15.96 | +5% | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| 16.72 | +10% | 18.4% | 81.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 16, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02, 2026 | 0 | — | — | 130.5K |
| Sep 09, 2026 | 7 | ±9.7% | 65.0% | 61.6K |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 14 | ±11.9% | 57.8% | 5.36M |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 21 | ±17.5% | 50.6% | 62.3K |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 28 | ±20.9% | 80.5% | 13.2K |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 49 | ±25.3% | 54.6% | 4.24M |
| Nov 18, 2026 | 77 | ±31.1% | 54.0% | 2.08M |
| Dec 16, 2026 | 105 | ±33.5% | 53.0% | 677.5K |
| Jan 20, 2027 | 140 | ±39.4% | 47.7% | 243.4K |
| Feb 17, 2027 | 168 | ±42.1% | 44.0% | 143.3K |
| Mar 17, 2027 | 196 | ±43.3% | 40.4% | 91.9K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 16
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 20 C · 636.9K17 P · 457.5K16 P · 450.6K19 P · 258.4K18 P · 257.9K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.