Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX · index)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:40 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (16.7K contracts, 45 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±5.5% (range 27,584.25–30,790.85) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 1,603.30 @ strike 29,200 · ATM IV: 22.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26,268.79 | -10% | 94.1% | 5.9% |
| 27,728.17 | -5% | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 29,187.55 | +0% | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 30,646.93 | +5% | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| 32,106.30 | +10% | 6.9% | 93.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | 0 | ±1.4% | 19.1% | 7,823 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 1 | ±1.8% | 21.6% | 2,727 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2 | ±2.1% | 22.5% | 6,306 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3 | ±2.4% | 23.4% | 1,427 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.6% | 23.6% | 4,325 |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 7 | ±2.9% | 21.6% | 3,421 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 8 | ±3.0% | 22.0% | 401 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 9 | ±3.3% | 22.9% | 1,411 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 10 | ±3.6% | 23.6% | 376 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±3.8% | 24.1% | 4,881 |
| Nov 02, 2026 | 14 | ±3.9% | 22.7% | 1,110 |
| Nov 03, 2026 | 15 | ±4.0% | 22.8% | 262 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 22,000 P · 4,11229,675 C · 3,52324,000 P · 2,86526,000 P · 1,75429,200 P · 1,743
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 490 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 46.5% of the time.