Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 21:56 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,362 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.0% (range 321.94–370.14) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 24.10 @ strike 345 · ATM IV: 29.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 311.44 | -10% | 87.8% | 12.2% |
| 328.74 | -5% | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 346.04 | +0% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 363.34 | +5% | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| 380.64 | +10% | 12.8% | 87.2% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.2% | 25.6% | 1,897 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±5.1% | 36.4% | 345 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±5.9% | 33.0% | 596 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±6.4% | 30.6% | 46 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±7.0% | 29.5% | 2,054 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±7.4% | 28.2% | 49 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±8.8% | 26.9% | 6,229 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±10.3% | 26.1% | 9,650 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±13.7% | 26.3% | 2,673 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±14.8% | 26.1% | 439 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 350 C · 1,394370 C · 686340 C · 601360 C · 594290 P · 591
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 59.5% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 2.2% · median 1.9% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names. The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worl
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Lodging · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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