HLT historial de movimiento esperado Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango76%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado76%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.9%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.7%
Error medio abs.1.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 345.12 | ±0.7% | 342.82–347.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 328.00 | ±1.6% | 322.75–333.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 329.59 | ±1.9% | 323.39–335.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 326.56 | ±2.5% | 318.36–334.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 323.75 | ±3.0% | 313.90–333.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 320.59 | ±3.0% | 310.94–330.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 322.67 | ±3.2% | 312.37–332.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 318.30 | ±3.5% | 307.00–329.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 319.36 | ±3.9% | 306.81–331.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 315.44 | ±4.2% | 302.14–328.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 308.89 | ±5.1% | 292.99–324.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 307.08 | ±5.3% | 290.83–323.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 304.67 | ±5.5% | 287.92–321.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 305.01 | ±5.6% | 287.91–322.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 307.79 | ±6.0% | 289.39–326.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 307.79 | ±6.0% | 289.39–326.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 306.19 | ±6.1% | 287.64–324.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 306.19 | ±6.1% | 287.64–324.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 306.41 | ±6.1% | 287.86–324.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 306.99 | ±6.4% | 287.29–326.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 307.44 | ±6.5% | 287.38–327.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 313.84 | ±6.9% | 292.24–335.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 314.35 | ±7.2% | 291.85–336.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 314.35 | ±7.2% | 291.85–336.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 311.85 | ±7.0% | 290.10–333.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 311.99 | ±7.3% | 289.34–334.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 315.68 | ±7.0% | 293.68–337.68 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 321.85 | ±7.1% | 299.05–344.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 345.12 | ±2.5% | 336.37–353.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 328.00 | ±3.3% | 317.10–338.90 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.0% | dentro | 326.56 → 326.56 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +0.9% | dentro | 323.75 → 326.56 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +1.9% | fuera | 320.59 → 326.56 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 322.67 → 326.56 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +2.6% | fuera | 318.30 → 326.56 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.3% | dentro | 319.36 → 326.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +3.5% | fuera | 315.44 → 326.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +5.7% | fuera | 308.89 → 326.56 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +6.3% | fuera | 307.08 → 326.56 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +7.2% | fuera | 304.67 → 326.56 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +7.1% | fuera | 305.01 → 326.56 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +6.1% | fuera | 307.79 → 326.56 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +6.1% | fuera | 307.79 → 326.56 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +6.7% | fuera | 306.19 → 326.56 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +6.7% | fuera | 306.19 → 326.56 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +6.6% | fuera | 306.41 → 326.56 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +6.4% | fuera | 306.99 → 326.56 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +6.2% | fuera | 307.44 → 326.56 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +4.1% | dentro | 313.84 → 326.56 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +3.9% | dentro | 314.35 → 326.56 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +3.9% | dentro | 314.35 → 326.56 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +4.7% | dentro | 311.85 → 326.56 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +4.7% | dentro | 311.99 → 326.56 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +3.4% | dentro | 315.68 → 326.56 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +1.5% | dentro | 321.85 → 326.56 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | dentro | 319.36 → 319.36 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | +1.2% | dentro | 315.44 → 319.36 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +3.4% | dentro | 308.89 → 319.36 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | +4.0% | fuera | 307.08 → 319.36 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | +4.8% | fuera | 304.67 → 319.36 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | +4.7% | fuera | 305.01 → 319.36 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +3.8% | dentro | 307.79 → 319.36 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +3.8% | dentro | 307.79 → 319.36 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +4.3% | dentro | 306.19 → 319.36 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +4.3% | dentro | 306.19 → 319.36 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +4.2% | dentro | 306.41 → 319.36 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | +4.0% | dentro | 306.99 → 319.36 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | +3.9% | dentro | 307.44 → 319.36 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | +1.8% | dentro | 313.84 → 319.36 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | +1.6% | dentro | 314.35 → 319.36 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | +1.6% | dentro | 314.35 → 319.36 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +2.4% | dentro | 311.85 → 319.36 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | +2.4% | dentro | 311.99 → 319.36 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 315.68 → 319.36 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 321.85 → 319.36 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.0% | +1.6% | dentro | 308.89 → 313.96 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | +2.2% | dentro | 307.08 → 313.96 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.6% | +3.1% | fuera | 304.67 → 313.96 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | +2.9% | fuera | 305.01 → 313.96 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +2.0% | dentro | 307.79 → 313.96 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +2.0% | dentro | 307.79 → 313.96 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +2.5% | dentro | 306.19 → 313.96 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +2.5% | dentro | 306.19 → 313.96 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +2.5% | dentro | 306.41 → 313.96 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | +2.3% | dentro | 306.99 → 313.96 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | +2.1% | dentro | 307.44 → 313.96 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | +0.0% | dentro | 313.84 → 313.96 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -0.1% | dentro | 314.35 → 313.96 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -0.1% | dentro | 314.35 → 313.96 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | +0.7% | dentro | 311.85 → 313.96 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.