Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:36 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,064 contracts, 17 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±11.8% (range 61.20–77.50) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 8.15 @ strike 70 · ATM IV: 47.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62.41 | -10% | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 65.88 | -5% | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| 69.35 | +0% | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 72.82 | +5% | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| 76.28 | +10% | 22.6% | 77.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±5.3% | 47.7% | 18.6K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±8.2% | 52.2% | 8,536 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±9.6% | 49.8% | 4,853 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±10.5% | 47.3% | 1,829 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±11.8% | 47.2% | 96.3K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±12.7% | 46.7% | 904 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±15.1% | 45.2% | 135.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±17.8% | 44.4% | 362.2K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±21.0% | 44.7% | 18.1K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±23.9% | 46.1% | 45.2K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±25.5% | 45.4% | 1,367 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 60 P · 19.1K75 C · 18.9K80 C · 18.9K50 P · 18.3K90 C · 17.2K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 93.5% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 4.5% · median 3.3% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a prominent mining enterprise conducting extensive operations across North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily focuses on the exploration and extraction of key mineral resources such as copper, gold, molybdenum, and silver, alongside other valuable metals. Additionally, it maintains a significant presence in the oil and gas sector. Its diverse portfolio of assets features the notable Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; numerous sites in the United States including Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado. In South America, its holdings include Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. Beyond its mineral interests, Freeport-McMoRan operates a collection of oil and gas properties, predominantly situated off the coasts of California and in the Gulf of Mexico, managing approximately 135 wells as of December 31, 2021. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, the company adopted its current name, Freeport-McMoRan Inc., in July 2014, having previously operated as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.
Basic Materials · Copper · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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