Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:33 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (714 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (16 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.4% (range 11.27–13.61) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.17 @ strike 12.5 · ATM IV: 56.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.20 | -10% | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| 11.82 | -5% | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 12.44 | +0% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 13.06 | +5% | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 13.68 | +10% | 19.3% | 80.7% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±3.7% | 60.8% | 46.9K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±6.7% | 53.2% | 14.6K |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±9.4% | 56.1% | 168.4K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±9.7% | 48.2% | 6,990 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 30 | ±12.9% | 56.1% | 3,698 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 37 | ±14.7% | 57.8% | 677 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±16.2% | 58.5% | 58.2K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 79 | ±22.4% | 61.0% | 10.1K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 107 | ±26.6% | 62.6% | 85.2K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 135 | ±29.0% | 60.9% | 155.1K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 198 | ±35.5% | 62.0% | 36.9K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 13 C · 32.6K12 C · 32.4K15 C · 23.2K11 P · 17.9K10 P · 13.7K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 10.0% · median 8.7% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. stands as a prominent North American manufacturer specializing in flat-rolled steel. The company's diverse product portfolio encompasses a wide array of carbon steel forms, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and advanced high-strength steel. Additionally, they supply stainless steel, various steel plates, and specialized electrical steels (both grain-oriented and non-oriented). Beyond these core offerings, Cleveland-Cliffs produces tubular components, fabricated from carbon steel, stainless steel, and via electric resistance welding. Their tinplate division manufactures electrolytic tin-coated and chrome-coated sheets, alongside other tin mill products. The company also provides essential raw materials, ingots, rolled and cast blooms, hot-briquetted iron, and services like tooling and sampling. A key aspect of its operations is vertical integration, as the company owns and manages five iron ore mines located in Minnesota and Michigan. Cleveland-Cliffs serves a broad customer base, including the automotive industry, infrastructure and general manufacturing sectors, distributors,
Basic Materials · Steel · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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