Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:34 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (726 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±19.7% (range 9.70–14.46) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 2.38 @ strike 12 · ATM IV: 72.6%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.87 | -10% | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| 11.48 | -5% | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 12.08 | +0% | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| 12.68 | +5% | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| 13.29 | +10% | 29.1% | 70.9% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±12.2% | 111.0% | 70.5K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±14.6% | 93.1% | 34.6K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±16.8% | 87.8% | 3,469 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±17.1% | 77.3% | 1,598 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±19.7% | 72.6% | 37.5K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±24.2% | 90.0% | 385 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±21.8% | 65.8% | 145.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±26.0% | 65.5% | 170.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±33.1% | 64.4% | 29.5K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±35.9% | 64.7% | 10.5K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 13 C · 73.0K15 C · 19.4K12 C · 17.3K11 C · 14.6K11 P · 12.5K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 83.9% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 10.0% · median 8.7% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. stands as a prominent North American manufacturer specializing in flat-rolled steel. The company's diverse product portfolio encompasses a wide array of carbon steel forms, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and advanced high-strength steel. Additionally, they supply stainless steel, various steel plates, and specialized electrical steels (both grain-oriented and non-oriented). Beyond these core offerings, Cleveland-Cliffs produces tubular components, fabricated from carbon steel, stainless steel, and via electric resistance welding. Their tinplate division manufactures electrolytic tin-coated and chrome-coated sheets, alongside other tin mill products. The company also provides essential raw materials, ingots, rolled and cast blooms, hot-briquetted iron, and services like tooling and sampling. A key aspect of its operations is vertical integration, as the company owns and manages five iron ore mines located in Minnesota and Michigan. Cleveland-Cliffs serves a broad customer base, including the automotive industry, infrastructure and general manufacturing sectors, distributors,
Basic Materials · Steel · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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