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每次覆盖的财报发布前,期权市场均会定价一个预期波动幅度。我们在事件发生前予以记录,并与股票实际表现对比——涵盖本季度及所有历史季度。 涨跌幅的计算方式

概览期权隐含走势 vs 标的历史波动表现

CLF10.0%STLD4.3%ALLY5.9%CB2.3%GE4.6%GM5.4%HAL5.5%ISRG6.3%KO2.2%LMT5.7%MMM6.4%NFLX9.5%
隐含波动区间The size of the up-or-down move the options market is pricing for a stock by a given date, read from option prices (the at-the-money straddle). It is a market-implied estimate, not a forecast.历史平均反应幅度(绝对值)

日历即将发布的财报

隐含波动幅度在每次财报前收盘时记录;在此之前,该栏会显示相应提示,而非进行预测。历史平均值为该公司自身过往的财报反应幅度。

公司EPS 预期 隐含涨跌幅历史平均波动幅度对比历史IV30
Monday, October 19
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. 0.21 ±12.5% 10.0% 66.2%
STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. 5.48 ±10.6% 4.3% 41.3%
Tuesday, October 20
ALLY Ally Financial Inc. 1.33 ±8.9% 5.9% 34.1%
CB Chubb Limited 6.79 ±5.4% 2.3% 22.1%
GE GE Aerospace 2.01 ±6.3% 4.6% 38.5%
GM General Motors Company 3.70 ±6.1% 5.4% 38.8%
HAL Halliburton Company 0.58 ±5.8% 5.5% 38.8%
ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. 2.65 ±7.9% 6.3% 46.9%
KO The Coca-Cola Company 0.88 ±2.3% 2.2% 22.1%
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation 7.54 ±5.0% 5.7% 32.2%
MMM 3M Company 2.39 ±6.1% 6.4% 33.6%
NFLX Netflix, Inc. 0.82 ±9.1% 9.5% 49.0%
NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation 7.18 ±8.0% 4.5% 33.5%
RTX RTX Corporation 1.78 ±5.3% 4.5% 32.4%
UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. 2.58 ±6.9% 6.3% 48.2%
VZ Verizon Communications Inc. 1.28 ±2.9% 4.0% 28.0%
Wednesday, October 21
AA Alcoa Corporation 1.56 ±5.3% 6.1% 45.2%
CCI Crown Castle Inc. 0.68 ±8.8% 3.3% 35.5%
IBM International Business Ma… 2.85 ±7.8% 6.0% 42.8%
KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. 0.32 ±3.4% 2.3% 25.8%
LRCX Lam Research Corporation 2.18 ±8.2% 5.4% 58.4%
LUV Southwest Airlines Co. 0.57 ±6.6% 5.8% 44.2%
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. 0.72 ±6.6% 6.1% 41.4%
META Meta Platforms, Inc. 6.58 ±7.3% 11.3% 45.2%
NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. 1.19 ±4.0% 4.5% 25.1%
PGR The Progressive Corporation 4.30 ±2.8% 4.3% 25.4%
PLD Prologis, Inc. 0.81 ±5.7% 3.4% 23.9%
PM Philip Morris Internation… 2.30 ±5.0% 3.8% 30.1%
T AT&T Inc. 0.60 ±5.0% 4.7% 29.8%
TSLA Tesla, Inc. 0.45 ±7.5% 9.1% 45.2%
TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated 2.42 ±8.4% 5.8% 51.0%
Thursday, October 22
AAL American Airlines Group Inc. -0.33 ±7.0% 5.4% 48.2%
BKR Baker Hughes Company 0.62 ±9.3% 5.4% 37.6%
BX Blackstone Inc. 1.27 ±6.3% 5.4% 41.6%
BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation 1.67 ±7.8% 4.7% 32.4%
CMCSA Comcast Corporation 0.99 ±6.7% 5.2% 40.4%
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation 1.79 ±10.8% 10.9% 55.0%
F Ford Motor Company 0.42 ±3.7% 6.1% 38.5%
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. 0.76 ±5.3% 4.5% 50.2%
HON Honeywell International Inc. 2.17 ±5.1% 4.5% 34.1%
INTC Intel Corp. 0.40 ±7.2% 9.5% 64.9%
NEM Newmont Corporation 1.95 ±5.6% 5.4% 43.0%
PG The Procter & Gamble Company 1.88 ±3.7% 2.5% 21.1%
SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. 3.18 ±9.7% 9.6% 51.4%
TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. 2.85 ±4.3% 5.1% 37.5%
VLO Valero Energy Corporation 21.07 ±6.5% 2.7% 53.7%
Friday, October 23
AXP American Express Company 4.58 ±5.5% 4.3% 28.9%
SLB Slb N.V. 0.62 ±6.9% 3.6% 38.0%
Monday, October 26
NUE Nucor Corporation 5.80 尚未记录 5.4% 41.8%
Tuesday, October 27
AMT American Tower Corporation 1.64 尚未记录 3.6% 30.8%
BA The Boeing Company -0.24 尚未记录 4.2% 35.9%
CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. -0.10 尚未记录 4.9% 38.5%
ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 0.51 尚未记录 13.6% 78.8%
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. 2.35 尚未记录 2.2% 29.8%
HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. 0.55 尚未记录 8.0% 66.6%
PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 1.31 尚未记录 9.1% 43.9%
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. 6.38 尚未记录 6.9% 50.9%
SCCO Southern Copper Corporation 1.95 尚未记录 3.4% 48.6%
SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 0.17 尚未记录 9.0% 59.3%
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated 4.09 尚未记录 6.3% 28.6%
UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. 1.63 尚未记录 6.4% 36.4%
V Visa Inc. 3.44 尚未记录 3.3% 24.0%
W Wayfair Inc. 0.79 尚未记录 13.8% 77.3%
Wednesday, October 28
AEP American Electric Power C… 2.03 尚未记录 2.3% 21.9%
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. 0.29 尚未记录 7.4% 46.9%
CVNA Carvana Co. 0.44 尚未记录 19.8% 79.6%
EBAY eBay Inc. 1.41 尚未记录 5.7% 41.4%
EQIX Equinix, Inc. 4.13 尚未记录 3.9% 36.0%

近期反应幅度(最近 14 天)

公司已公布反应幅度隐含值为
SCHW The Charles Schwab Corp… Oct 15 -5.0% ±4.4%
USB U.S. Bancorp Oct 15 +4.4% ±4.0%
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Ma… Oct 15 -4.0% ±4.3%
PLD Prologis, Inc. Oct 15 -3.6% ±4.1%
AA Alcoa Corporation Oct 15 +3.4% ±6.9%
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. Oct 15 +3.1% ±3.6%
PNC The PNC Financial Servi… Oct 15 +0.7% ±4.1%
BLK BlackRock, Inc. Oct 14 +5.1% ±4.9%
BAC Bank of America Corporation Oct 14 -4.2% ±4.1%
PGR The Progressive Corporation Oct 14 -4.1% ±3.6%
ASML ASML Holding N.V. Oct 14 -3.5% ±6.1%
MS Morgan Stanley Oct 14 -2.4% ±4.5%
C Citigroup Inc. Oct 13 -7.3% ±4.5%
DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. Oct 13 -4.8% ±7.5%
UNH UnitedHealth Group Inco… Oct 13 +4.5% ±8.2%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson Oct 13 -3.7% ±4.0%
WFC Wells Fargo & Company Oct 13 -2.9% ±5.3%
GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Oct 13 -1.7% ±4.8%
BLK BlackRock, Inc. Oct 13 -0.9% ±5.6%
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. Oct 13 +0.3% ±3.9%

反应幅度 = 财报发布日前后两个交易日的收盘价变动幅度;历史平均值取绝对波动幅度的均值。财报日期及预测数据来源:Financial Modeling Prep。

非必需消费品

ABNB · Airbnb, Inc.AMZN · Amazon.com, Inc.AZO · AutoZone, Inc.BABA · Alibaba Group Holding…BBY · Best Buy Co., Inc.BYD · Boyd Gaming CorporationCAVA · CAVA Group, Inc.CCL · Carnival Corporation & plc

ETF

ARKK · ARK Innovation ETFBITO · ProShares Bitcoin ETFDIA · State Street SPDR Dow…EEM · iShares MSCI Emerging…EFA · iShares MSCI EAFE ETFEWZ · iShares MSCI Brazil ETFFXI · iShares China Large-Cap ETFGDX · VanEck Gold Miners ETF

科技

AAPL · Apple Inc.ADBE · Adobe Inc.AI · C3.ai, Inc.AMAT · Applied Materials, Inc.AMD · Advanced Micro Device…APP · AppLovin CorporationARM · Arm Holdings plc Amer…ASML · ASML Holding N.V.

金融服务

AFRM · Affirm Holdings, Inc.ALL · The Allstate CorporationALLY · Ally Financial Inc.AXP · American Express CompanyBAC · Bank of America CorporationBLK · BlackRock, Inc.BX · Blackstone Inc.C · Citigroup Inc.

工业

AAL · American Airlines Gro…BA · The Boeing CompanyCAT · Caterpillar Inc.CMI · Cummins Inc.DAL · Delta Air Lines, Inc.DE · Deere & CompanyEMR · Emerson Electric Co.ETN · Eaton Corporation plc

必需消费品

CELH · Celsius Holdings, Inc.CL · Colgate-Palmolive CompanyCOST · Costco Wholesale Corp…DG · Dollar General CorporationDLTR · Dollar Tree, Inc.EL · The Estée Lauder Comp…GIS · General Mills, Inc.HSY · The Hershey Company