每次覆盖的财报发布前,期权市场均会定价一个预期波动幅度。我们在事件发生前予以记录,并与股票实际表现对比——涵盖本季度及所有历史季度。 涨跌幅的计算方式
概览期权隐含走势 vs 标的历史波动表现
隐含波动区间The size of the up-or-down move the options market is pricing for a stock by a given date, read from option prices (the at-the-money straddle). It is a market-implied estimate, not a forecast.历史平均反应幅度(绝对值)
日历即将发布的财报
隐含波动幅度在每次财报前收盘时记录;在此之前,该栏会显示相应提示,而非进行预测。历史平均值为该公司自身过往的财报反应幅度。
| 公司 | EPS 预期 | 隐含涨跌幅 | 历史平均波动幅度 | 对比历史 | IV30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, October 19 | |||||
| 0.21 | ±12.5% | 10.0% | 66.2% | ||
| 5.48 | ±10.6% | 4.3% | 41.3% | ||
| Tuesday, October 20 | |||||
| 1.33 | ±8.9% | 5.9% | 34.1% | ||
| 6.79 | ±5.4% | 2.3% | 22.1% | ||
| 2.01 | ±6.3% | 4.6% | 38.5% | ||
| 3.70 | ±6.1% | 5.4% | 38.8% | ||
| 0.58 | ±5.8% | 5.5% | 38.8% | ||
| 2.65 | ±7.9% | 6.3% | 46.9% | ||
| 0.88 | ±2.3% | 2.2% | 22.1% | ||
| 7.54 | ±5.0% | 5.7% | 32.2% | ||
| 2.39 | ±6.1% | 6.4% | 33.6% | ||
| 0.82 | ±9.1% | 9.5% | 49.0% | ||
| 7.18 | ±8.0% | 4.5% | 33.5% | ||
| 1.78 | ±5.3% | 4.5% | 32.4% | ||
| 2.58 | ±6.9% | 6.3% | 48.2% | ||
| 1.28 | ±2.9% | 4.0% | 28.0% | ||
| Wednesday, October 21 | |||||
| 1.56 | ±5.3% | 6.1% | 45.2% | ||
| 0.68 | ±8.8% | 3.3% | 35.5% | ||
| 2.85 | ±7.8% | 6.0% | 42.8% | ||
| 0.32 | ±3.4% | 2.3% | 25.8% | ||
| 2.18 | ±8.2% | 5.4% | 58.4% | ||
| 0.57 | ±6.6% | 5.8% | 44.2% | ||
| 0.72 | ±6.6% | 6.1% | 41.4% | ||
| 6.58 | ±7.3% | 11.3% | 45.2% | ||
| 1.19 | ±4.0% | 4.5% | 25.1% | ||
| 4.30 | ±2.8% | 4.3% | 25.4% | ||
| 0.81 | ±5.7% | 3.4% | 23.9% | ||
| 2.30 | ±5.0% | 3.8% | 30.1% | ||
| 0.60 | ±5.0% | 4.7% | 29.8% | ||
| 0.45 | ±7.5% | 9.1% | 45.2% | ||
| 2.42 | ±8.4% | 5.8% | 51.0% | ||
| Thursday, October 22 | |||||
| -0.33 | ±7.0% | 5.4% | 48.2% | ||
| 0.62 | ±9.3% | 5.4% | 37.6% | ||
| 1.27 | ±6.3% | 5.4% | 41.6% | ||
| 1.67 | ±7.8% | 4.7% | 32.4% | ||
| 0.99 | ±6.7% | 5.2% | 40.4% | ||
| 1.79 | ±10.8% | 10.9% | 55.0% | ||
| 0.42 | ±3.7% | 6.1% | 38.5% | ||
| 0.76 | ±5.3% | 4.5% | 50.2% | ||
| 2.17 | ±5.1% | 4.5% | 34.1% | ||
| 0.40 | ±7.2% | 9.5% | 64.9% | ||
| 1.95 | ±5.6% | 5.4% | 43.0% | ||
| 1.88 | ±3.7% | 2.5% | 21.1% | ||
| 3.18 | ±9.7% | 9.6% | 51.4% | ||
| 2.85 | ±4.3% | 5.1% | 37.5% | ||
| 21.07 | ±6.5% | 2.7% | 53.7% | ||
| Friday, October 23 | |||||
| 4.58 | ±5.5% | 4.3% | 28.9% | ||
| 0.62 | ±6.9% | 3.6% | 38.0% | ||
| Monday, October 26 | |||||
| 5.80 | 尚未记录 | 5.4% | 41.8% | ||
| Tuesday, October 27 | |||||
| 1.64 | 尚未记录 | 3.6% | 30.8% | ||
| -0.24 | 尚未记录 | 4.2% | 35.9% | ||
| -0.10 | 尚未记录 | 4.9% | 38.5% | ||
| 0.51 | 尚未记录 | 13.6% | 78.8% | ||
| 2.35 | 尚未记录 | 2.2% | 29.8% | ||
| 0.55 | 尚未记录 | 8.0% | 66.6% | ||
| 1.31 | 尚未记录 | 9.1% | 43.9% | ||
| 6.38 | 尚未记录 | 6.9% | 50.9% | ||
| 1.95 | 尚未记录 | 3.4% | 48.6% | ||
| 0.17 | 尚未记录 | 9.0% | 59.3% | ||
| 4.09 | 尚未记录 | 6.3% | 28.6% | ||
| 1.63 | 尚未记录 | 6.4% | 36.4% | ||
| 3.44 | 尚未记录 | 3.3% | 24.0% | ||
| 0.79 | 尚未记录 | 13.8% | 77.3% | ||
| Wednesday, October 28 | |||||
| 2.03 | 尚未记录 | 2.3% | 21.9% | ||
| 0.29 | 尚未记录 | 7.4% | 46.9% | ||
| 0.44 | 尚未记录 | 19.8% | 79.6% | ||
| 1.41 | 尚未记录 | 5.7% | 41.4% | ||
| 4.13 | 尚未记录 | 3.9% | 36.0% | ||
近期反应幅度(最近 14 天)
| 公司 | 已公布 | 反应幅度 | 隐含值为 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCHW The Charles Schwab Corp… | Oct 15 | -5.0% | ±4.4% |
| USB U.S. Bancorp | Oct 15 | +4.4% | ±4.0% |
| TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Ma… | Oct 15 | -4.0% | ±4.3% |
| PLD Prologis, Inc. | Oct 15 | -3.6% | ±4.1% |
| AA Alcoa Corporation | Oct 15 | +3.4% | ±6.9% |
| TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | Oct 15 | +3.1% | ±3.6% |
| PNC The PNC Financial Servi… | Oct 15 | +0.7% | ±4.1% |
| BLK BlackRock, Inc. | Oct 14 | +5.1% | ±4.9% |
| BAC Bank of America Corporation | Oct 14 | -4.2% | ±4.1% |
| PGR The Progressive Corporation | Oct 14 | -4.1% | ±3.6% |
| ASML ASML Holding N.V. | Oct 14 | -3.5% | ±6.1% |
| MS Morgan Stanley | Oct 14 | -2.4% | ±4.5% |
| C Citigroup Inc. | Oct 13 | -7.3% | ±4.5% |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | Oct 13 | -4.8% | ±7.5% |
| UNH UnitedHealth Group Inco… | Oct 13 | +4.5% | ±8.2% |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Oct 13 | -3.7% | ±4.0% |
| WFC Wells Fargo & Company | Oct 13 | -2.9% | ±5.3% |
| GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | Oct 13 | -1.7% | ±4.8% |
| BLK BlackRock, Inc. | Oct 13 | -0.9% | ±5.6% |
| JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Oct 13 | +0.3% | ±3.9% |
反应幅度 = 财报发布日前后两个交易日的收盘价变动幅度;历史平均值取绝对波动幅度的均值。财报日期及预测数据来源:Financial Modeling Prep。