Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,190 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±11.0% (range 376.35–469.65) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 46.65 @ strike 425 · ATM IV: 44.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 380.70 | -10% | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| 401.85 | -5% | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| 423.00 | +0% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 444.15 | +5% | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| 465.30 | +10% | 21.3% | 78.7% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±7.9% | 70.0% | 4,728 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±9.0% | 57.0% | 2,007 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±10.1% | 52.0% | 604 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±10.5% | 46.8% | 620 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±11.0% | 44.1% | 15.7K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±11.3% | 41.2% | 503 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±13.0% | 38.9% | 17.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±15.6% | 38.7% | 22.4K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±18.1% | 38.2% | 3,080 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±20.0% | 38.3% | 5,793 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±21.9% | 38.5% | 1,717 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 350 P · 2,429400 C · 1,940420 C · 1,555340 P · 1,392480 C · 1,194
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 40.9% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.3% · median 4.3% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Intuitive Surgical, Inc.
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. is a leading medical technology firm dedicated to advancing patient care by developing, producing, and commercializing sophisticated tools. These innovations empower medical professionals to deliver superior, accessible, and less-invasive treatment options to patients both within the United States and across international markets. Its flagship offering, the da Vinci Surgical System, facilitates intricate operations through a minimally disruptive approach. Expanding beyond surgical applications, the company also provides the Ion endoluminal system, designed for diagnostic interventions like minimally invasive lung biopsies. Complementing its primary systems, Intuitive Surgical supplies a comprehensive array of instruments, including stapling tools, energy devices, and essential core components. Furthermore, it offers structured training programs to ensure proficient use of its technology, alongside extensive customer support services encompassing installation, repairs, and ongoing maintenance. The firm also integrates digital capabilities to deliver unified, connected solutions that optimize hospital performance through actionable insights. Established in 19
Healthcare · Medical - Instruments & Supplies · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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