United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:43 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (932 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.4% (range 88.33–106.58) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 9.12 @ strike 95 · ATM IV: 35.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87.70 | -10% | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| 92.58 | -5% | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| 97.45 | +0% | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 102.32 | +5% | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| 107.20 | +10% | 16.9% | 83.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.9% | 26.2% | 12.4K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±7.5% | 48.1% | 13.4K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±7.7% | 40.3% | 2,231 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±8.2% | 36.9% | 2,907 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±9.4% | 35.5% | 64.1K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±9.6% | 34.5% | 568 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±10.3% | 30.9% | 45.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±11.4% | 28.8% | 130.8K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±15.1% | 29.1% | 19.7K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±16.2% | 29.1% | 3,632 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 100 C · 25.3K110 C · 13.2K90 P · 10.6K105 C · 9,285120 C · 8,681
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 43.0% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.4% · median 4.6% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About United Parcel Service, Inc.
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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