Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:36 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,640 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (16 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±4.3% (range 508.85–554.25) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 22.70 @ strike 530 · ATM IV: 24.8%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 478.39 | -10% | 97.8% | 2.2% |
| 504.97 | -5% | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| 531.55 | +0% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 558.13 | +5% | 16.7% | 83.3% |
| 584.71 | +10% | 3.1% | 96.9% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±1.6% | 26.9% | 7,269 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±3.1% | 24.4% | 2,310 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±4.3% | 24.8% | 25.6K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±4.9% | 24.3% | 1,744 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 30 | ±5.7% | 24.9% | 1,397 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 37 | ±6.6% | 25.8% | 260 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±7.0% | 25.1% | 1,099 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 79 | ±10.6% | 28.5% | 6,536 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 107 | ±12.2% | 28.0% | 11.6K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 135 | ±13.3% | 27.3% | 21.0K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 198 | ±16.2% | 27.7% | 4,249 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 600 C · 1,672700 C · 1,447610 C · 1,240535 P · 1,156450 P · 852
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 5.7% · median 5.4% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Lockheed Martin Corporation
Lockheed Martin Corporation stands as a prominent global security and aerospace enterprise, specializing in the comprehensive lifecycle of advanced technological systems. Its expertise spans the research, design, development, manufacturing, integration, and ongoing sustainment of cutting-edge products and services across the world. The company's diverse operations are structured into four key segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. The Aeronautics division is responsible for creating and producing leading-edge combat and air mobility aircraft, alongside unmanned aerial vehicles and their related innovations. The Missiles and Fire Control segment delivers sophisticated air and missile defense systems; tactical and precision air-to-ground weapon systems; comprehensive logistics; advanced fire control; mission operations, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; both crewed and uncrewed ground vehicles; and energy management solutions. Within the Rotary and Mission Systems segment, the portfolio includes military and commercial helicopters, naval surface ships, land and sea-based missile defense systems, advanced radar
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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