Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:43 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (898 contracts, 10 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.7% (range 214.89–266.19) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 25.65 @ strike 240 · ATM IV: 43.0%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216.49 | -10% | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| 228.51 | -5% | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| 240.54 | +0% | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 252.57 | +5% | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| 264.59 | +10% | 20.8% | 79.2% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±10.7% | 43.0% | 5,740 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±13.2% | 39.6% | 4,299 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±15.4% | 38.6% | 4,508 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±18.2% | 38.9% | 1,003 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±20.3% | 39.3% | 4,523 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 290 C · 1,268230 P · 1,062240 P · 829250 P · 698240 C · 674
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 15 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 100.0% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 4.3% · median 3.4% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Steel Dynamics, Inc.
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel products, including hot, cold, and coated rolled steel, various structural shapes like beams, channels, and angles, flat and reinforcing bars, and a diverse selection of rail and engineered steel bar products. This segment also provides specialized processing services for both bar products (such as turning, polishing, and heat treating) and specialty items (including cutting, welding, and galvanizing). Its offerings cater to numerous industries, such as construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agricultural equipment, and pipe and tube production. Sales are channeled directly to end-users, steel fabricators, and service centers. The Metals Recycling Operations division focuses on acquiring, processing, and reselling ferrous (e.g., heavy melting steel, shredded scrap, cast iron) and nonferrous (e.g., aluminum, copper, stainless steel) scrap metals, transforming them into reusable materials. This division further offe
Basic Materials · Steel · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities · Basic Materials
CLF · IV 73.7%AA · IV 47.4%FCX · IV 47.2%MP · IV 65.2%NEM · IV 40.8%VALE · IV 37.6%