UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 15:05 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,872 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±6.8% (range 375.12–430.12) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 27.50 @ strike 402.5 · ATM IV: 28.7%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 362.36 | -10% | 88.5% | 11.5% |
| 382.49 | -5% | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| 402.62 | +0% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 422.75 | +5% | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| 442.88 | +10% | 12.2% | 87.8% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.9% | 33.8% | 31.4K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±4.2% | 29.9% | 20.2K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±5.3% | 29.8% | 11.6K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±6.1% | 29.0% | 6,938 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±6.8% | 28.7% | 76.7K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±7.2% | 27.2% | 7,545 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±9.3% | 28.5% | 78.2K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±11.6% | 29.5% | 327.4K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±15.9% | 30.9% | 43.2K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 400 C · 12.7K350 P · 10.5K450 C · 9,721410 C · 9,284330 P · 7,949
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 74.2% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.3% · median 4.5% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) operates as a comprehensive healthcare enterprise across the United States, structuring its diverse services into four key divisions: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment provides a wide array of health benefit plans and consumer-focused services. These offerings cater to a broad spectrum of clients, including large national corporations, public sector employers, mid-sized and small businesses, and individual consumers. It also delivers specialized health coverage and wellness programs tailored for individuals aged 50 and older, addressing their needs for preventive and acute care, chronic disease management, and other age-specific health issues. This division further encompasses Medicaid plans, children's health insurance, dental benefits, and various hospital and clinical services. Optum Health focuses on delivering direct healthcare solutions and management services. It facilitates access to networks of specialist care providers, offers health management programs, direct care delivery, consumer engagement initiatives, and financial services. Its diverse clientele includes individuals (serv
Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Plans · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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