United States Oil Fund, LP (USO · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 00:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (4,654 contracts, 21 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Oct 16, 2026 (44 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±12.3% (range 123.85–158.45) by Oct 16, 2026. ATM straddle: 17.30 @ strike 141 · ATM IV: 44.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127.04 | -10% | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 134.09 | -5% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 141.15 | +0% | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| 148.21 | +5% | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 155.27 | +10% | 24.3% | 75.7% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Oct 16, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02, 2026 | 0 | ±0.2% | 28.0% | 49.2K |
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±2.5% | 42.1% | 105.5K |
| Sep 09, 2026 | 7 | ±4.3% | 38.8% | 15.7K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±5.1% | 40.8% | 27.6K |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 14 | ±6.4% | 40.8% | 253 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±6.9% | 41.0% | 272.5K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±8.8% | 43.7% | 20.7K |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 30 | ±9.9% | 43.5% | 15.6K |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 37 | ±11.2% | 44.3% | 2,428 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±12.3% | 44.4% | 334.4K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 79 | ±16.7% | 45.4% | 0 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 107 | ±19.4% | 45.3% | 143.8K |
Open interest by strike — Oct 16
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 100 P · 54.2K200 C · 38.7K120 P · 36.2K145 C · 32.4K150 C · 30.9K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
About United States Oil Fund, LP
USO delivers its exposure to oil using near-term futures. USO gets exposure to oil using derivatives, like several oil ETPs. The fund predominately holds near-month-futures contracts on WTI, rolling into future contracts every month. This method is particularly sensitive to short-term changes in spot prices. USO held front month contracts until April 17, 2020, at which time following leeway in the prospectus, USO changed the exposure from holding specifically front-month contracts to holding predominantly front-month contracts, 30% next month and 15% contracts with further expiry. USO is structured as a commodities pool, so expect a K-1 at tax time. Long-term holders will be taxed on any gains even if they didn't sell shares.
ETF · Asset Management · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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