iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:38 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (3,168 contracts, 28 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.3% (range 41.86–50.42) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 4.28 @ strike 46 · ATM IV: 37.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41.53 | -10% | 81.5% | 18.5% |
| 43.84 | -5% | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 46.14 | -0% | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 48.45 | +5% | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| 50.76 | +10% | 18.0% | 82.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | 0 | ±2.3% | 31.9% | 23.1K |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 1 | ±2.9% | 34.4% | 17.3K |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2 | ±3.2% | 34.1% | 7,156 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3 | ±3.6% | 34.7% | 10.3K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±3.8% | 34.5% | 150.9K |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 7 | ±4.3% | 32.8% | 6,374 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 8 | ±4.7% | 33.7% | 4,486 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 9 | ±5.0% | 34.6% | 700 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 10 | ±5.3% | 35.3% | 148 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±5.5% | 35.4% | 282.6K |
| Nov 02, 2026 | 14 | — | — | 0 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±7.2% | 37.5% | 33.1K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 50 C · 115.0K55 C · 102.6K48 C · 81.5K47 C · 71.3K60 C · 66.9K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 200 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 65.5% of the time.
About iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is engineered to generally replicate the market price performance of Bitcoin. Notably, this ETF is not registered as an investment company under the 1940 Investment Company Act, meaning it is not subject to the same regulatory oversight that governs mutual funds or other ETFs registered under that statute. Furthermore, the Trust is not categorized as a commodity pool according to the Commodity Exchange Act. Potential investors are strongly advised to meticulously review the prospectus, giving careful consideration to the outlined risk factors and all other essential information, before making an investment decision.
ETF · Asset Management - Cryptocurrency · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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