United States Oil Fund, LP (USO · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:42 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (5,770 contracts, 23 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±11.4% (range 142.01–178.71) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 18.35 @ strike 160 · ATM IV: 46.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144.33 | -10% | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 152.35 | -5% | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| 160.36 | -0% | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 168.38 | +5% | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| 176.40 | +10% | 22.2% | 77.8% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2 | ±4.0% | 41.1% | 38.4K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.9% | 43.3% | 79.4K |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 9 | ±6.5% | 44.4% | 8,580 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±7.1% | 44.7% | 62.3K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±8.8% | 45.5% | 19.0K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±10.3% | 46.1% | 11.5K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±11.4% | 46.2% | 139.0K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±12.5% | 46.1% | 6,232 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±15.3% | 46.0% | 191.6K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±18.0% | 45.3% | 246.6K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±20.5% | 44.0% | 3,416 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±22.6% | 43.9% | 139.6K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 140 P · 25.6K110 P · 22.6K153 C · 19.0K100 P · 18.4K170 C · 18.1K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 151 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 71.5% of the time.
About United States Oil Fund, LP
USO delivers its exposure to oil using near-term futures. USO gets exposure to oil using derivatives, like several oil ETPs. The fund predominately holds near-month-futures contracts on WTI, rolling into future contracts every month. This method is particularly sensitive to short-term changes in spot prices. USO held front month contracts until April 17, 2020, at which time following leeway in the prospectus, USO changed the exposure from holding specifically front-month contracts to holding predominantly front-month contracts, 30% next month and 15% contracts with further expiry. USO is structured as a commodities pool, so expect a K-1 at tax time. Long-term holders will be taxed on any gains even if they didn't sell shares.
ETF · Asset Management · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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