Li Auto Inc. (LI)
Ikhtisar · Rantai opsi · Volatilitas · Riwayat pergerakan yang diharapkan · Laba
Cboe delayed options data · per 18:40 UTC · Angka yang diturunkan dari rantai opsi penuh (554 kontrak, 12 kedaluwarsa) · Persentil riwayat IV sendiri muncul setelah 60 hari pencatatan (29 sejauh ini)
Pergerakan yang diharapkan · Oct 30, 2026 (10 hari)
Metodologi →Dibaca dari harga opsi: straddle at-the-money berharga sebesar ini, sehingga pasar memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar sebesar itu ke salah satu arah pada tanggal ini. Ini adalah estimasi besarnya pergerakan, bukan prediksi arahnya.
Opsi memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar ±6.0% (rentang 11.28–12.71) oleh Oct 30, 2026. ATM straddle: 0.72 @ strike 12 · ATM IV: 45.1%.
Distribusi probabilitas
Model & asumsi →Kurva ini menunjukkan kisaran hasil yang diperkirakan oleh model lognormal — yang menggunakan implied volatility saat ini — pada ekspirasi ini. Bagian yang diarsir: pita pergerakan yang diperkirakan.
| Level | vs harga | P(di atas)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(di bawah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.80 | -10% | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| 11.40 | -5% | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 11.99 | -0% | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 12.59 | +5% | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| 13.19 | +10% | 9.5% | 90.5% |
Probabilitas yang diestimasi model untuk harga berakhir di atas/di bawah setiap level saat kedaluwarsa: estimasi berdasarkan asumsi tertentu, bukan prediksi.
Penjelajah probabilitas
Geser slider ke level mana pun dan lihat perkiraan peluang dari model bahwa saham akan berakhir di atas atau di bawah level tersebut pada expirasi yang dipilih.
Horizon: Oct 30, 2026 · Model lognormal dengan zero drift: estimasi, bukan prediksi. Asumsi
Expirasi
Buka rantai opsi →| Kedaluwarsa | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±3.4% | 46.4% | 5,154 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±6.0% | 45.1% | 17.3K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±7.8% | 45.2% | 1,293 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±9.2% | 44.6% | 691 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±11.1% | 47.5% | 2,466 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±12.0% | 46.4% | 80 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±15.1% | 47.1% | 29.8K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±17.9% | 46.1% | 60.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±24.7% | 48.6% | 3,404 |
Open interest per strike · Oct 30
Tempat posisi opsi terkonsentrasi. Batang teal adalah call, batang merah adalah put; garis putus-putus adalah harga saat ini.
Konsentrasi open interest terbesar (semua kedaluwarsa ≤ 60 hari): 10 P · 18.1K11 P · 5,55613 C · 4,50414 C · 3,86613 P · 3,577
Struktur tenor IV
Halaman volatilitas →Implied volatility at-the-money untuk setiap tanggal kedaluwarsa. Tonjolan di sekitar suatu tanggal sering menandai acara terjadwal yang sedang dihargai oleh pasar.
Kapan open interest kedaluwarsa?
Implied vs volatilitas terealisasi
HV dari penutupan harian tersimpan kami (disetahunkan); IV30 diinterpolasi dari rantai opsi. Metode
Harga, 60 sesi terakhir
Penutupan harian; Financial Modeling Prep.
Rekam jejak
Riwayat lengkap →Dari 121 perbandingan snapshot-versus-hasil yang direkam sejauh ini, penutupan berada di dalam kisaran yang diperkirakan 82.6% dari waktu ke waktu.
Reaksi pendapatan masa lalu
Rata-rata |reaksi| 8.4% · median 6.1% (21 laporan). Jendela waktu dua sesi penutupan ke penutupan; definisi
Tentang Li Auto Inc.
Li Auto Inc. is a prominent player in the rapidly expanding new energy vehicle market within the People's Republic of China. The company's operations span the entire lifecycle of high-end intelligent electric vehicles, from their initial design and development to manufacturing and eventual sale. Its diverse product portfolio primarily consists of multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). The company engages directly with customers through a blend of digital platforms and traditional brick-and-mortar channels, providing comprehensive sales and post-purchase management services. Originally founded in 2015 as Leading Ideal Inc., the company officially adopted its current name, Li Auto Inc., in July 2020. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Beijing, China.
Konsumer Siklikal · Auto - Manufacturers · NASDAQ · Profil: Financial Modeling Prep
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