Li Auto Inc. (LI)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (554 contracts, 12 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Oct 30, 2026 (10 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.1% (range 10.48–12.10) by Oct 30, 2026. ATM straddle: 0.805 @ strike 11.5 · ATM IV: 49.8%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.16 | -10% | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| 10.73 | -5% | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 11.29 | +0% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 11.85 | +5% | 26.5% | 73.5% |
| 12.42 | +10% | 11.6% | 88.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Oct 30, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±3.9% | 41.8% | 4,701 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±7.1% | 49.8% | 17.2K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±8.5% | 47.0% | 1,278 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±10.2% | 47.8% | 547 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±11.0% | 45.7% | 2,128 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±11.3% | 42.8% | 58 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±14.6% | 45.0% | 29.8K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±19.8% | 50.8% | 60.0K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±24.1% | 47.2% | 3,375 |
Open interest by strike · Oct 30
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 10 P · 18.1K11 P · 5,20713 C · 4,40813 P · 3,57614 C · 3,534
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 82.6% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 8.4% · median 6.1% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Li Auto Inc.
Li Auto Inc. is a prominent player in the rapidly expanding new energy vehicle market within the People's Republic of China. The company's operations span the entire lifecycle of high-end intelligent electric vehicles, from their initial design and development to manufacturing and eventual sale. Its diverse product portfolio primarily consists of multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). The company engages directly with customers through a blend of digital platforms and traditional brick-and-mortar channels, providing comprehensive sales and post-purchase management services. Originally founded in 2015 as Leading Ideal Inc., the company officially adopted its current name, Li Auto Inc., in July 2020. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Beijing, China.
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturers · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
LI news
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