MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)
概览 · 期权链 · 波动率 · 预期涨跌幅历史记录 · 财报
Cboe delayed options data · 截至 21:41 UTC · 基于完整期权链衍生的数据 (3,780 合约, 15 到期日) · IV自身历史百分位在记录满60天后显示 (28 迄今为止)
预期涨跌幅 · Nov 13, 2026 (25 天)
方法论 →从期权价格中读取：平值跨式期权的成本即为市场在此日期前预计的双向波动幅度。这是对波动空间的估算，而非对方向的预测。
期权隐含波动幅度约为 ±10.6% (区间 1,634.41–2,023.91) 由 Nov 13, 2026. ATM 跨式组合: 194.75 @ 行权价 1,830 · ATM IV: 47.9%.
概率分布
模型与假设 →该曲线显示以当前隐含波动率为输入的对数正态模型对本到期日结果区间的估计，阴影部分为预期波动区间。
| 级别 | vs 价格 | P(上涨)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(下跌) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,646.24 | -10% | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 1,737.70 | -5% | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 1,829.16 | +0% | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 1,920.62 | +5% | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| 2,012.08 | +10% | 20.5% | 79.5% |
基于模型估算的到期时收盘价高于/低于各价位的概率，这些是在特定假设下的估计值，并非预测结果。
概率探索工具
拖动滑块至任意价位，查看模型估算的股票在所选到期日收于该价位上方或下方的概率。
期限: Nov 13, 2026 · 以零漂移对数正态模型计算的估计值，并非预测结果。 假设条件
到期日
打开期权链 →| 到期时间 | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | 隐含涨跌幅 | ATM IV | 未平仓量 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.2% | 37.3% | 6,046 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±6.4% | 40.4% | 3,367 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±10.2% | 53.2% | 3,289 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±10.6% | 47.9% | 7,225 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±11.4% | 45.8% | 6,275 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±11.9% | 43.7% | 638 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±13.9% | 41.6% | 13.1K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±16.3% | 40.9% | 10.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±21.6% | 41.7% | 3,177 |
各行权价未平仓量 · Nov 13
期权头寸集中分布的位置。青色柱为 call，红色柱为 put；虚线为当前价格。
未平仓量最集中的头寸（所有到期日 ≤ 60天）： 2,100 C · 3,2352,200 C · 3,0351,700 P · 1,1421,500 P · 9592,180 C · 904
隐含波动率与已实现波动率
历史波动率来自我们存储的每日收盘价（年化）；IV30由期权链插值得出。 方法
价格，近60个交易日
每日收盘数据；来源：Financial Modeling Prep
关于 MercadoLibre, Inc.
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates as a prominent provider of digital commerce platforms throughout Latin America. Its primary service, the Mercado Libre Marketplace, is an automated online system allowing businesses, independent vendors, and private individuals to list merchandise and finalize sales. Supporting this, the Mercado Pago FinTech platform offers a financial technology solution, facilitating transactions both on and off its e-commerce sites by enabling users to securely send and receive online payments and transfer funds via web and mobile applications. The company further expands its financial offerings through Mercado Fondo, a service that permits users to invest balances held in their Mercado Pago accounts, and Mercado Credito, which extends credit options to qualified merchants and consumers. For logistics, Mercado Envios provides a comprehensive solution, empowering sellers on its platform to utilize third-party delivery services and other logistical partners, including warehousing and fulfillment capabilities. Beyond these core services, MercadoLibre also runs Mercado Libre Classifieds, an online classifieds platform for motor vehicles, real estate, and professional serv
非必需消费品 · Specialty Retail · NASDAQ · 公司简介：Financial Modeling Prep