iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 18:37 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,386 contracts, 23 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±4.8% (range 31.98–35.21) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.61 @ strike 33.5 · ATM IV: 20.0%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30.24 | -10% | 96.0% | 4.0% |
| 31.92 | -5% | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| 33.59 | -0% | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 35.27 | +5% | 19.7% | 80.3% |
| 36.95 | +10% | 5.1% | 94.9% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±1.8% | 20.4% | 44.9K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±2.8% | 19.6% | 31.5K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±3.6% | 19.8% | 5,126 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±4.3% | 20.1% | 2,341 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±4.8% | 20.0% | 343.8K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±5.2% | 19.7% | 7,494 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±7.0% | 19.7% | 966.0K |
| Dec 31, 2026 | 73 | ±7.2% | 19.2% | 17.1K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±8.1% | 20.0% | 660.1K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±9.8% | 20.6% | 58.0K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±11.1% | 21.0% | 332.6K |
| Mar 31, 2027 | 163 | ±12.1% | 22.1% | 894 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 35 P · 113.1K35 C · 110.9K31 P · 103.2K34 P · 99.9K38 C · 84.6K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 111 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 61.3% of the time.
About iShares China Large-Cap ETF
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF aims to mirror the performance of an index consisting of major Chinese companies whose shares are traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
ETF · Asset Management - Global · AMEX · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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