iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of Sep 02, 21:54 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,456 contracts, 29 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (16 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±1.8% (range 80.44–83.40) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.48 @ strike 82 · ATM IV: 10.7%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73.73 | -10% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 77.82 | -5% | 98.9% | 1.1% |
| 81.92 | +0% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 86.01 | +5% | 1.4% | 98.6% |
| 90.11 | +10% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02, 2026 | 0 | ±0.1% | 11.3% | 105.7K |
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±0.7% | 12.3% | 302.3K |
| Sep 09, 2026 | 7 | ±1.0% | 9.1% | 46.7K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±1.3% | 10.2% | 164.5K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 12 | ±1.4% | 9.5% | 43.6K |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 14 | ±1.6% | 10.3% | 7,292 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±1.8% | 10.7% | 1.54M |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±2.1% | 10.6% | 97.1K |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 28 | ±2.4% | 10.5% | 293.0K |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 30 | ±2.6% | 10.6% | 44.3K |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 37 | ±2.8% | 10.7% | 12.3K |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±3.1% | 10.8% | 1.21M |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 84 C · 269.3K83 C · 255.7K85 C · 239.1K80 P · 195.4K81 P · 188.4K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Of 1 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 100.0% of the time.
About iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Providing exposure to long-term government debt, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF aims to replicate the performance of an index. This benchmark index is comprised exclusively of U.S. Treasury securities with maturities extending beyond two decades.
ETF · Asset Management - Bonds · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities — ETF
SPY · IV 12.1%QQQ · IV 18.5%IWM · IV 17.4%GLD · IV 23.7%EWZ · IV 30.9%IBIT · IV 36.0%