iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:43 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,884 contracts, 30 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±3.6% (range 77.19–82.92) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 2.87 @ strike 80 · ATM IV: 14.3%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72.05 | -10% | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| 76.05 | -5% | 88.3% | 11.7% |
| 80.06 | +0% | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 84.06 | +5% | 12.1% | 87.9% |
| 88.06 | +10% | 1.2% | 98.8% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | 0 | ±0.8% | 11.0% | 76.3K |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2 | ±1.2% | 12.8% | 68.6K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±1.5% | 13.9% | 239.9K |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 7 | ±1.6% | 12.4% | 34.1K |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 9 | ±2.0% | 13.5% | 25.3K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±2.2% | 14.1% | 359.7K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±2.9% | 14.5% | 292.6K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±3.3% | 14.5% | 150.0K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±3.6% | 14.3% | 1.36M |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±3.8% | 14.1% | 19.3K |
| Nov 30, 2026 | 42 | ±3.9% | 13.8% | 442.2K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±4.8% | 14.1% | 1.87M |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 90 C · 376.7K85 C · 295.4K83 C · 261.9K80 C · 245.6K73 P · 218.0K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 204 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 46.1% of the time.
About iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Providing exposure to long-term government debt, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF aims to replicate the performance of an index. This benchmark index is comprised exclusively of U.S. Treasury securities with maturities extending beyond two decades.
ETF · Asset Management - Bonds · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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