Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
Ikhtisar · Rantai opsi · Volatilitas · Riwayat pergerakan yang diharapkan · Laba
Cboe delayed options data · per 09:35 UTC · Angka yang diturunkan dari rantai opsi penuh (1,168 kontrak, 15 kedaluwarsa) · Persentil riwayat IV sendiri muncul setelah 60 hari pencatatan (28 sejauh ini)
Pergerakan yang diharapkan · Nov 20, 2026 (32 hari)
Metodologi →Dibaca dari harga opsi: straddle at-the-money berharga sebesar ini, sehingga pasar memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar sebesar itu ke salah satu arah pada tanggal ini. Ini adalah estimasi besarnya pergerakan, bukan prediksi arahnya.
Opsi memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar ±9.0% (rentang 112.98–135.38) oleh Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 11.20 @ strike 125 · ATM IV: 36.3%.
Distribusi probabilitas
Model & asumsi →Kurva ini menunjukkan kisaran hasil yang diperkirakan oleh model lognormal — yang menggunakan implied volatility saat ini — pada ekspirasi ini. Bagian yang diarsir: pita pergerakan yang diperkirakan.
| Level | vs harga | P(di atas)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(di bawah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111.76 | -10% | 82.3% | 17.7% |
| 117.97 | -5% | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 124.18 | +0% | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 130.39 | +5% | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| 136.60 | +10% | 17.3% | 82.7% |
Probabilitas yang diestimasi model untuk harga berakhir di atas/di bawah setiap level saat kedaluwarsa: estimasi berdasarkan asumsi tertentu, bukan prediksi.
Penjelajah probabilitas
Geser slider ke level mana pun dan lihat perkiraan peluang dari model bahwa saham akan berakhir di atas atau di bawah level tersebut pada expirasi yang dipilih.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · Model lognormal dengan zero drift: estimasi, bukan prediksi. Asumsi
Expirasi
Buka rantai opsi →| Kedaluwarsa | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.5% | 40.8% | 1,375 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±5.6% | 35.7% | 719 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±7.2% | 37.7% | 320 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±8.1% | 36.4% | 236 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±9.0% | 36.3% | 7,848 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±9.9% | 36.6% | 79 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±13.3% | 40.1% | 8,467 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±15.5% | 38.7% | 32.8K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±17.6% | 37.3% | 893 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±20.5% | 39.4% | 2,673 |
Open interest per strike · Nov 20
Tempat posisi opsi terkonsentrasi. Batang teal adalah call, batang merah adalah put; garis putus-putus adalah harga saat ini.
Konsentrasi open interest terbesar (semua kedaluwarsa ≤ 60 hari): 140 C · 1,431125 C · 1,339100 P · 1,323130 C · 1,316110 P · 1,030
Struktur tenor IV
Halaman volatilitas →Implied volatility at-the-money untuk setiap tanggal kedaluwarsa. Tonjolan di sekitar suatu tanggal sering menandai acara terjadwal yang sedang dihargai oleh pasar.
Kapan open interest kedaluwarsa?
Implied vs volatilitas terealisasi
HV dari penutupan harian tersimpan kami (disetahunkan); IV30 diinterpolasi dari rantai opsi. Metode
Harga, 60 sesi terakhir
Penutupan harian; Financial Modeling Prep.
Rekam jejak
Riwayat lengkap →Dari 93 perbandingan snapshot-versus-hasil yang direkam sejauh ini, penutupan berada di dalam kisaran yang diperkirakan 57.0% dari waktu ke waktu.
Reaksi pendapatan masa lalu
Rata-rata |reaksi| 9.8% · median 9.1% (21 laporan). Jendela waktu dua sesi penutupan ke penutupan; definisi
Tentang Dollar Tree, Inc.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a consistent price of $1.25. Its product range is broad, encompassing essential consumables like confectionery, various food items, health and personal care products, household cleaning chemicals, paper goods, and frozen or refrigerated foods. Beyond these daily necessities, customers can find a diverse selection of general merchandise, including toys, resilient housewares, gifts, stationery, party essentials, greeting cards, softline apparel, and arts and crafts supplies. The segment also prominently features seasonal items for holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day. By January 29, 2022, this division maintained a substantial presence with 8,061 retail locations across its Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, supported by 15 distribution centers in the U.S. and an additional two in Canada. Conversely, the Family Dollar segment functions as a general merchandise discount chain with varying prices. Its invento
Konsumer Defensif · Discount Stores · NASDAQ · Profil: Financial Modeling Prep
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WMT · IV 29.1%KO · IV 21.8%COST · IV 19.2%PEP · IV 21.7%MO · IV 26.9%PG · IV 21.7%