Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of Oct 19, 21:54 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,168 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±8.6% (range 112.59–133.71) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 10.55 @ strike 123 · ATM IV: 36.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110.84 | -10% | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 116.99 | -5% | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 123.15 | +0% | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 129.31 | +5% | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| 135.47 | +10% | 17.3% | 82.7% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±3.8% | 45.1% | 1,500 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±5.7% | 40.7% | 739 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±6.4% | 35.8% | 348 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±7.8% | 37.3% | 296 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±8.6% | 36.2% | 7,770 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±9.9% | 38.0% | 79 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±12.7% | 39.0% | 8,495 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±14.7% | 37.1% | 32.8K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±17.5% | 37.5% | 905 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±20.3% | 39.4% | 2,701 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 140 C · 1,443125 C · 1,367130 C · 1,337100 P · 1,320110 P · 1,035
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 56.2% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 9.8% · median 9.1% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Dollar Tree, Inc.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a consistent price of $1.25. Its product range is broad, encompassing essential consumables like confectionery, various food items, health and personal care products, household cleaning chemicals, paper goods, and frozen or refrigerated foods. Beyond these daily necessities, customers can find a diverse selection of general merchandise, including toys, resilient housewares, gifts, stationery, party essentials, greeting cards, softline apparel, and arts and crafts supplies. The segment also prominently features seasonal items for holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day. By January 29, 2022, this division maintained a substantial presence with 8,061 retail locations across its Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, supported by 15 distribution centers in the U.S. and an additional two in Canada. Conversely, the Family Dollar segment functions as a general merchandise discount chain with varying prices. Its invento
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
DLTR news
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WMT · IV 28.5%KO · IV 21.6%PEP · IV 21.1%EL · IV 52.8%COST · IV 19.0%PG · IV 21.8%