VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH · ETF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history
Cboe delayed options data · as of 21:53 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (6,756 contracts, 27 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (4 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±4.7% (range 526.52–578.67) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 26.07 @ strike 552.5 · ATM IV: 29.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 497.34 | -10% | 96.1% | 3.9% |
| 524.97 | -5% | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| 552.60 | +0% | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 580.23 | +5% | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| 607.86 | +10% | 5.0% | 95.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 03, 2026 | 0 | ±0.2% | 59.2% | 8,986 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±1.4% | 34.0% | 230.5K |
| Sep 08, 2026 | 5 | ±2.2% | 23.0% | 12.6K |
| Sep 09, 2026 | 6 | ±2.5% | 24.3% | 1,942 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 7 | ±2.8% | 25.4% | 1,673 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±3.4% | 28.4% | 39.7K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 11 | ±3.6% | 25.9% | 614 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 12 | ±3.8% | 26.0% | 1,270 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 13 | ±4.2% | 27.6% | 827 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 14 | ±4.5% | 28.8% | 0 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±4.7% | 29.1% | 614.3K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±5.9% | 30.1% | 19.9K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 400 P · 82.2K405 P · 73.6K415 P · 58.5K450 P · 39.1K500 P · 36.8K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Of 6 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 83.3% of the time.
About VanEck Semiconductor ETF
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) strives to mirror, as closely as feasible, the price and yield performance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index (MVSMHTR), prior to the assessment of any fees or expenses. This underlying index is designed to reflect the comprehensive performance of businesses engaged in the manufacturing of semiconductors and related equipment.
ETF · Asset Management · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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