Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 03:36 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (560 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (16 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±6.6% (range 14.58–16.64) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.03 @ strike 15.5 · ATM IV: 39.3%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.05 | -10% | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| 14.83 | -5% | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 15.61 | +0% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 16.39 | +5% | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| 17.17 | +10% | 11.5% | 88.5% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 2 | ±2.6% | 42.8% | 18.0K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 9 | ±5.2% | 41.0% | 12.4K |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16 | ±6.6% | 39.3% | 178.1K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23 | ±8.3% | 39.6% | 3,888 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 30 | ±10.2% | 43.4% | 2,045 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 37 | ±11.0% | 42.0% | 273 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44 | ±12.6% | 44.5% | 23.5K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 107 | ±21.8% | 50.0% | 147.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 135 | ±23.9% | 49.5% | 137.3K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 198 | ±29.5% | 50.0% | 26.0K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 13 P · 24.9K15 P · 18.6K22 C · 18.2K17 P · 17.7K16 P · 15.9K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 8.1% · median 7.1% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), along with its subsidiary companies, operates as a major global cruise enterprise. Its operations span North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and other international markets. The company manages a portfolio of three distinct cruise brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. NCLH offers an extensive range of voyages, from brief three-day excursions to lengthy 180-day expeditions. These itineraries explore a comprehensive list of destinations worldwide, including Scandinavia, Russia, the Mediterranean, and the Greek Isles; the Alaskan wilderness, Canada and New England; Hawaii, Asia, Tahiti, and the South Pacific; Australia and New Zealand; Africa, India, and South America; as well as the Panama Canal and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2021, the company commanded a fleet of 28 ships, providing approximately 59,150 berths for guests. Its travel products are distributed through multiple channels, including independent retail/travel advisors, direct sales onboard its ships, and specialized services for meetings, incentives, and private charters. Founded in 1966, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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