Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (560 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±14.0% (range 13.00–17.24) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 2.12 @ strike 15 · ATM IV: 57.1%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.61 | -10% | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 14.36 | -5% | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 15.12 | +0% | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 15.88 | +5% | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| 16.63 | +10% | 25.9% | 74.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±5.2% | 46.8% | 13.4K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±9.7% | 62.5% | 7,726 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±11.0% | 58.0% | 4,670 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±11.8% | 53.5% | 1,529 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±14.0% | 57.1% | 48.2K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±15.3% | 56.9% | 339 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±16.8% | 51.0% | 187.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±19.6% | 49.5% | 146.8K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±26.4% | 51.5% | 36.4K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 16 P · 26.7K15 P · 20.6K14 P · 20.1K20 C · 18.6K17 C · 18.3K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 76.3% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 8.1% · median 7.1% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), along with its subsidiary companies, operates as a major global cruise enterprise. Its operations span North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and other international markets. The company manages a portfolio of three distinct cruise brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. NCLH offers an extensive range of voyages, from brief three-day excursions to lengthy 180-day expeditions. These itineraries explore a comprehensive list of destinations worldwide, including Scandinavia, Russia, the Mediterranean, and the Greek Isles; the Alaskan wilderness, Canada and New England; Hawaii, Asia, Tahiti, and the South Pacific; Australia and New Zealand; Africa, India, and South America; as well as the Panama Canal and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2021, the company commanded a fleet of 28 ships, providing approximately 59,150 berths for guests. Its travel products are distributed through multiple channels, including independent retail/travel advisors, direct sales onboard its ships, and specialized services for meetings, incentives, and private charters. Founded in 1966, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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