Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,194 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.1% (range 131.83–158.13) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 13.15 @ strike 145 · ATM IV: 36.3%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130.48 | -10% | 82.3% | 17.7% |
| 137.73 | -5% | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 144.98 | +0% | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 152.23 | +5% | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| 159.48 | +10% | 17.4% | 82.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±3.4% | 30.3% | 14.4K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±7.1% | 45.1% | 17.2K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±7.8% | 40.4% | 3,370 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±8.7% | 38.8% | 1,287 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±9.1% | 36.3% | 58.6K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±9.2% | 33.7% | 319 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±11.4% | 33.9% | 83.2K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±13.0% | 32.4% | 120.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±17.6% | 33.9% | 40.2K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±18.8% | 33.5% | 5,742 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 170 C · 16.5K175 C · 12.0K135 P · 11.7K160 C · 10.7K155 C · 10.2K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 87.1% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.8% · median 3.1% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Merck & Co., Inc.
Merck & Co., Inc. is a global healthcare leader with operations spanning two core divisions: Pharmaceuticals and Animal Health. The Pharmaceutical segment is dedicated to human health, offering a broad spectrum of medicinal products. These cover crucial therapeutic areas such as oncology, acute hospital care, immunology, neuroscience, virology, cardiovascular conditions, and diabetes. This division also develops vital preventive vaccines for pediatric, adolescent, and adult populations. Meanwhile, the Animal Health segment focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of veterinary medications, vaccines, and comprehensive health management solutions for animals. This division further provides innovative digital products designed for animal identification, traceability, and continuous monitoring. Merck's extensive clientele encompasses drug wholesalers, pharmacies, hospitals, and government agencies. It also serves managed healthcare organizations, including health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and pharmacy benefit managers, as well as various other institutional clients. Additionally, the company supplies products to individual physicians and their distribut
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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