The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Ikhtisar · Rantai opsi · Volatilitas · Riwayat pergerakan yang diharapkan · Laba
Cboe delayed options data · per 16:03 UTC · Angka yang diturunkan dari rantai opsi penuh (968 kontrak, 15 kedaluwarsa) · Persentil riwayat IV sendiri muncul setelah 60 hari pencatatan (28 sejauh ini)
Pergerakan yang diharapkan · Nov 20, 2026 (32 hari)
Metodologi →Dibaca dari harga opsi: straddle at-the-money berharga sebesar ini, sehingga pasar memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar sebesar itu ke salah satu arah pada tanggal ini. Ini adalah estimasi besarnya pergerakan, bukan prediksi arahnya.
Opsi memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar ±7.9% (rentang 101.05–118.50) oleh Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 8.72 @ strike 110 · ATM IV: 33.4%.
Distribusi probabilitas
Model & asumsi →Kurva ini menunjukkan kisaran hasil yang diperkirakan oleh model lognormal — yang menggunakan implied volatility saat ini — pada ekspirasi ini. Bagian yang diarsir: pita pergerakan yang diperkirakan.
| Level | vs harga | P(di atas)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(di bawah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98.80 | -10% | 84.5% | 15.5% |
| 104.29 | -5% | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 109.78 | +0% | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 115.26 | +5% | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| 120.75 | +10% | 15.6% | 84.4% |
Probabilitas yang diestimasi model untuk harga berakhir di atas/di bawah setiap level saat kedaluwarsa: estimasi berdasarkan asumsi tertentu, bukan prediksi.
Penjelajah probabilitas
Geser slider ke level mana pun dan lihat perkiraan peluang dari model bahwa saham akan berakhir di atas atau di bawah level tersebut pada expirasi yang dipilih.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · Model lognormal dengan zero drift: estimasi, bukan prediksi. Asumsi
Expirasi
Buka rantai opsi →| Kedaluwarsa | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.4% | 28.4% | 45.3K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±3.8% | 26.8% | 8,534 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±4.5% | 25.2% | 6,090 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±5.3% | 25.0% | 5,456 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±7.9% | 33.4% | 92.3K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±8.4% | 32.1% | 774 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±9.8% | 29.5% | 78.7K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±10.9% | 27.7% | 130.9K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±14.8% | 28.9% | 32.5K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±16.0% | 28.5% | 3,583 |
Open interest per strike · Nov 20
Tempat posisi opsi terkonsentrasi. Batang teal adalah call, batang merah adalah put; garis putus-putus adalah harga saat ini.
Konsentrasi open interest terbesar (semua kedaluwarsa ≤ 60 hari): 106 P · 23.3K115 C · 18.3K95 P · 16.3K110 C · 14.2K120 C · 12.1K
Struktur tenor IV
Halaman volatilitas →Implied volatility at-the-money untuk setiap tanggal kedaluwarsa. Tonjolan di sekitar suatu tanggal sering menandai acara terjadwal yang sedang dihargai oleh pasar.
Kapan open interest kedaluwarsa?
Implied vs volatilitas terealisasi
HV dari penutupan harian tersimpan kami (disetahunkan); IV30 diinterpolasi dari rantai opsi. Metode
Harga, 60 sesi terakhir
Penutupan harian; Financial Modeling Prep.
Rekam jejak
Riwayat lengkap →Dari 93 perbandingan snapshot-versus-hasil yang direkam sejauh ini, penutupan berada di dalam kisaran yang diperkirakan 73.1% dari waktu ke waktu.
Reaksi pendapatan masa lalu
Rata-rata |reaksi| 7.2% · median 7.4% (21 laporan). Jendela waktu dua sesi penutupan ke penutupan; definisi
Tentang The Walt Disney Company
Operating worldwide through its various subsidiaries, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) stands as a prominent global entertainment enterprise. Its vast array of activities is organized into two primary divisions: Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, and Disney Parks, Experiences and Products. Within its media and entertainment arm, Disney is actively engaged in developing and distributing both cinematic films and television series. This segment encompasses the management of well-known broadcast networks such as ABC, Disney, ESPN, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star, as well as renowned film studios responsible for productions under banners like Walt Disney Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, and Searchlight Pictures. The company also delivers content directly to consumers through its popular streaming platforms, including Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, ESPN+, Hulu, and Star+. Further activities involve licensing its film and television content to external broadcasters and subscription video-on-demand services, overseeing theatrical releases, home entertainment distribution, and music distribution, staging and licensing live entertainment spect
Layanan Komunikasi · Entertainment · NYSE · Profil: Financial Modeling Prep
DIS berita
Semua berita →My sister moved in with our mother, 78, and says she deserves the $925,000 family home. Is she right?
“The house is worth $925,000 and mom owns it outright. She also has $480,000 in investments.”
MarketWatch · 16:00 UTC ↗We're buying more of a beaten-up stock before another overhang is lifted
The stock is still down big from its Aug. 5 close.
CNBC · 15:43 UTC ↗Colleges raced to build massive computer-science departments. Now the boom is turning to bust.
“Computer science isn’t the ticket to the American dream like people thought it was.”
MarketWatch · 15:26 UTC ↗Credit stress is threatening to unwind the AI bull. All eyes are on Oracle to hold the line
Investors are pushing up the cost of insurance against an Oracle default.
CNBC · 15:15 UTC ↗‘My husband suffered a massive stroke at 53’: I’m 64 and will rent for the rest of my life — but I’m still hopeful
“Ill-timed circumstances can change our financial future in unexpected ways.”
MarketWatch · 14:30 UTC ↗Efek terkait · Layanan Komunikasi
META · IV 45.2%GOOGL · IV 36.9%NFLX · IV 49.0%SNAP · IV 84.8%AMC · IV 87.8%TTD · IV 85.5%