Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:44 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,652 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Oct 30, 2026 (11 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±4.6% (range 478.90–525.10) by Oct 30, 2026. ATM straddle: 23.10 @ strike 502.5 · ATM IV: 29.3%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 451.80 | -10% | 97.9% | 2.1% |
| 476.90 | -5% | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| 502.00 | +0% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 527.10 | +5% | 16.3% | 83.7% |
| 552.20 | +10% | 2.9% | 97.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Oct 30, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±3.5% | 31.8% | 4,138 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±4.6% | 29.3% | 2,385 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±7.1% | 37.2% | 331 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±7.9% | 36.0% | 416 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±8.8% | 35.6% | 1,416 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±9.5% | 35.0% | 57 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±10.7% | 32.2% | 9,653 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±12.7% | 31.8% | 12.9K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±17.9% | 34.6% | 1,978 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±19.2% | 34.1% | 265 |
Open interest by strike · Oct 30
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 500 P · 1,678440 P · 1,223490 P · 1,081570 C · 955510 C · 882
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 74.2% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.7% · median 2.0% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated is a leading biotechnology firm primarily focused on the discovery, advancement, and marketing of innovative treatments, particularly for cystic fibrosis (CF). The company offers a range of approved medications for CF patients, including SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI, ORKAMBI, and KALYDECO, which target specific mutations within the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene. Additionally, they provide TRIKAFTA for individuals with CF aged six years and older who possess at least one F508del mutation. Beyond its established CF therapies, Vertex maintains a robust and diverse clinical pipeline. This includes VX-864, currently in Phase 2 for alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) deficiency; VX-147, also in Phase 2, addressing APOL1-mediated focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) and other serious kidney conditions; VX-880, a potential treatment for Type 1 Diabetes undergoing Phase 1/2 trials; VX-548, a NaV1.8 inhibitor in Phase 2 for various forms of acute, neuropathic, and musculoskeletal pain; and CTX001, which is in Phase 3 development for severe sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia (TDT). The company distributes its pharm
Healthcare · Biotechnology · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities · Healthcare
MRNA · IV 109.7%UNH · IV 31.7%HIMS · IV 89.0%PFE · IV 26.0%LLY · IV 40.7%JNJ · IV 23.4%