U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:42 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (864 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±6.3% (range 54.90–62.23) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 3.67 @ strike 57.5 · ATM IV: 24.0%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52.70 | -10% | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| 55.63 | -5% | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 58.56 | +0% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 61.49 | +5% | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| 64.42 | +10% | 8.4% | 91.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.8% | 24.5% | 4,000 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±3.8% | 23.7% | 3,875 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±4.8% | 25.1% | 1,689 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±5.3% | 23.7% | 621 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±6.3% | 24.0% | 16.2K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±6.4% | 23.6% | 155 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±8.1% | 23.7% | 37.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±9.9% | 24.1% | 51.3K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±11.6% | 24.5% | 3,690 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±13.1% | 25.1% | 18.5K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 62.5 C · 10.4K67.5 C · 8,18665 C · 6,31360 C · 6,22155 P · 2,389
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 43.0% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.5% · median 3.1% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About U.S. Bancorp
U.S. Bancorp (USB) functions as a broad-based financial services holding company, delivering a comprehensive spectrum of banking and financial solutions throughout the United States. Its diverse customer base includes individual consumers, various businesses, institutional organizations, governmental bodies, and other financial entities. The company organizes its operations across key segments: Corporate and Commercial Banking, Consumer and Business Banking, Wealth Management and Investment Services, Payment Services, and Treasury and Corporate Support. Its offerings encompass fundamental depository services such as checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificates. U.S. Bancorp also extends a variety of credit facilities, including traditional lending products, credit card services, lease financing, support for import/export trade, asset-backed lending, and agricultural finance. Furthermore, it provides supplementary services like capital markets access, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection for its corporate and governmental clients. The firm also offers a full suite of asset management and fiduciary services designed for individuals, estates, foundatio
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
USB news
All news →Treasury yields move higher as investors assess U.S. inflation backdrop
Treasury yields rose as investors weigh the domestic inflation and interest rate backdrop against broader geopolitical developments.
CNBC · 13:52 UTC ↗France and the U.S. share the same debt trap. Why the U.S. has an escape valve.
France and the U.S. have similar debt dynamics.
MarketWatch · 13:19 UTC ↗U.S. Treasury Yields Fall in Asian Trade
Treasury yields fell in Asian trade on Monday as oil prices declined, allowing yields to remain comfortably below recent multidecade highs…
WSJ · 02:19 UTC ↗CNBC Daily Open: A thousand drones and one strained U.S.-Ukraine alliance
Tensions between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump on the diplomatic front has also complicated Ukraine's…
CNBC · 01:16 UTC ↗Iran says it has a 'new operational plan' if the U.S. resumes attacks, as shipping vessels report strikes
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the country's military has prepared a response to any new…
CNBC · Oct 18, 13:52 UTC ↗Related securities · Financial Services
SOFI · IV 59.0%MARA · IV 93.3%RIOT · IV 95.6%NU · IV 62.5%C · IV 28.4%WFC · IV 25.5%