Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 18:45 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (750 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Oct 30, 2026 (10 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±8.3% (range 22.23–26.25) by Oct 30, 2026. ATM straddle: 2.01 @ strike 24 · ATM IV: 62.0%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.81 | -10% | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| 23.02 | -5% | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 24.23 | -0% | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 25.45 | +5% | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| 26.66 | +10% | 16.3% | 83.7% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Oct 30, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±5.0% | 66.2% | 16.1K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±8.3% | 62.0% | 11.1K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±15.9% | 91.9% | 10.8K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±17.0% | 82.8% | 1,781 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±17.9% | 77.0% | 8,373 |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±20.6% | 80.4% | 868 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±23.0% | 70.6% | 32.9K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±26.5% | 67.0% | 106.2K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 122 | ±32.1% | 69.0% | 7,672 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±35.8% | 69.7% | 7,923 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 178 | ±38.3% | 68.5% | 797 |
Open interest by strike · Oct 30
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 25 C · 8,93335 C · 5,66630 C · 4,62820 P · 4,22024 C · 3,885
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 64.5% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 24.7% · median 24.8% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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