Shopify Inc. (SHOP)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 15:43 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,422 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (31 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±16.5% (range 146.60–204.60) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 29.00 @ strike 175 · ATM IV: 70.9%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158.04 | -10% | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 166.82 | -5% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 175.60 | -0% | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 184.39 | +5% | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| 193.17 | +10% | 28.6% | 71.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±4.5% | 60.5% | 45.8K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±7.6% | 56.7% | 27.9K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±14.8% | 85.6% | 8,379 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±15.5% | 75.6% | 4,489 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±16.5% | 70.9% | 70.0K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±17.5% | 68.1% | 1,007 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±19.8% | 62.0% | 103.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±22.4% | 57.7% | 104.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±30.1% | 59.4% | 25.5K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 178 | ±32.1% | 58.4% | 3,789 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 145 C · 46.4K105 P · 32.9K110 P · 9,753175 C · 8,916150 C · 6,330
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 40.5% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 16.5% · median 17.5% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Shopify Inc.
Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide. Its reach extends across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America. The company's robust platform equips merchants to effectively display, organize, market, and sell their merchandise through a multitude of sales avenues. These include digital storefronts accessible via web and mobile, traditional brick-and-mortar stores, temporary pop-up locations, integrated social media channels, proprietary mobile applications, embeddable "buy buttons," and established online marketplaces. Beyond sales, the platform streamlines crucial business operations such as product and inventory management, order and payment processing, fulfillment and shipping logistics, attracting new customers and fostering client relationships, product sourcing, analytical reporting, financial administration encompassing cash, payments, and transactions, and facilitating access to working capital. Additionally, Shopify offers supplementary services like the sale of custom website themes and applications, al
Technology · Software - Application · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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