Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of Oct 19, 22:02 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (936 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±6.9% (range 91.15–104.59) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 6.72 @ strike 98 · ATM IV: 28.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88.08 | -10% | 88.6% | 11.4% |
| 92.98 | -5% | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 97.87 | +0% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 102.76 | +5% | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| 107.66 | +10% | 12.1% | 87.9% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.6% | 31.2% | 12.0K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±6.9% | 49.3% | 12.7K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±7.3% | 40.8% | 3,763 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±9.1% | 42.7% | 2,271 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±6.9% | 28.5% | 49.5K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±8.6% | 32.9% | 429 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±9.9% | 29.8% | 105.8K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±11.1% | 27.8% | 160.3K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±14.3% | 30.4% | 9,583 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±15.4% | 29.8% | 21.4K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±16.9% | 30.1% | 1,091 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 95 C · 20.5K110 C · 13.1K100 C · 12.9K85 P · 12.3K90 P · 11.6K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 45.5% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 5.2% · median 4.1% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Starbucks Corporation
Starbucks Corporation, along with its various subsidiaries, operates worldwide as a key player in roasting, marketing, and selling specialty coffee. Its business is structured into three main operating divisions: North America, International markets, and Channel Development. The company's retail outlets offer a broad assortment of coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole bean and ground coffees, single-serve options, and ready-to-drink products. Customers can also find a variety of food items, including pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch selections. Furthermore, Starbucks extends its brand reach by licensing its trademarks to independently operated stores, grocery retailers, and foodservice accounts. Products are sold under well-known labels such as Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi. As of October 3, 2021, Starbucks had a significant global presence, operating 16,826 company-owned and licensed stores across North America, in addition to 17,007 similar locations internationally. The company, established in 1971, is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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