Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:41 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,018 contracts, 13 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (31 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.0% (range 186.97–215.27) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 14.15 @ strike 200 · ATM IV: 29.6%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 181.01 | -10% | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| 191.07 | -5% | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| 201.12 | -0% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 211.18 | +5% | 27.2% | 72.8% |
| 221.24 | +10% | 12.6% | 87.4% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±4.4% | 52.3% | 5,601 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±5.3% | 37.9% | 2,496 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±6.3% | 35.3% | 1,305 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±6.7% | 31.8% | 993 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±7.0% | 29.6% | 29.7K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±7.9% | 30.3% | 124 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±9.2% | 28.4% | 22.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±10.8% | 27.7% | 34.3K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±14.7% | 28.8% | 18.5K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 210 C · 10.4K200 C · 6,612195 C · 4,027175 P · 3,443220 C · 3,438
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 62.8% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 3.8% · median 3.1% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Philip Morris International Inc.
Philip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States. The smoke-free portfolio includes brands like HEETS (encompassing Creations, Dimensions, Marlboro variants), Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA, in addition to KT&G-licensed brands Fiit and Miix. For conventional cigarettes, the company sells internationally recognized brands such as Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris. Regionally, it also owns major cigarette brands like Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. PMI's smoke-free innovations are currently available across 71 global markets. Established in 1987, Philip Morris International Inc. is he
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
PM news
All news →'Godzilla El Niño' is wreaking havoc with Philippine central bank's inflation forecasts
The Philippine central bank is running policy scenarios for a severe El Niño on top of the oil shock, with inflation at a three-year high.
CNBC · Oct 14, 04:24 UTC ↗Related securities · Consumer Defensive
WMT · IV 29.2%KO · IV 21.4%PEP · IV 21.1%EL · IV 51.8%COST · IV 19.0%PG · IV 21.6%