The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:37 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,292 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±4.0% (range 212.58–230.18) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 8.80 @ strike 222.5 · ATM IV: 23.5%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 199.24 | -10% | 98.6% | 1.4% |
| 210.31 | -5% | 85.3% | 14.7% |
| 221.38 | +0% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 232.45 | +5% | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| 243.52 | +10% | 2.2% | 97.8% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±1.6% | 25.3% | 2,476 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±2.7% | 21.5% | 1,108 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±4.0% | 23.5% | 11.9K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±4.8% | 23.5% | 316 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±5.5% | 23.7% | 146 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±6.2% | 24.1% | 311 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±7.0% | 25.0% | 1,672 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50 | — | — | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 78 | ±9.5% | 25.3% | 5,429 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±11.1% | 25.4% | 4,203 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±13.3% | 22.3% | 15.7K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 169 | ±14.7% | 23.9% | 656 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 230 C · 2,332195 P · 1,861240 C · 1,787190 P · 1,592210 P · 1,207
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 4.3% · median 3.6% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About The Progressive Corporation
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications. This segment insures a diverse array of vehicles, including cars, vans, pickup trucks, and dump trucks for small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks for regional freight, expedited shippi
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
PGR news
All news →Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Thursday, September 3, 2026: Crypto prices lift this morning despite oil costs gaining steam
Yahoo Finance · 13:03 UTC ↗HCI Group’s (HCI) Earnings Are Climbing Faster Than They Look
Yahoo Finance · 13:03 UTC ↗A Record Renewables Quarter Powers The Andersons (ANDE) Higher
Yahoo Finance · 13:03 UTC ↗Chemours (CC) Enters the AI Cooling Market with New Refrigerants
Yahoo Finance · 13:03 UTC ↗For all their talk about AI, few companies are quantifying gains
Yahoo Finance · 13:03 UTC ↗Related securities — Financial Services
SOFI · IV 47.5%HOOD · IV 60.6%MARA · IV 81.5%COIN · IV 62.2%NU · IV 40.5%BAC · IV 20.8%