On Holding AG (ONON)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 12:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (712 contracts, 14 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±13.2% (range 30.33–39.57) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 4.62 @ strike 35 · ATM IV: 53.6%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31.46 | -10% | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 33.20 | -5% | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| 34.95 | +0% | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| 36.70 | +5% | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 38.45 | +10% | 24.8% | 75.2% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.7% | 41.9% | 11.1K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±7.4% | 46.9% | 16.1K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±8.9% | 46.3% | 2,775 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±12.8% | 58.0% | 1,343 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±13.2% | 53.6% | 62.3K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±13.4% | 49.8% | 449 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±15.8% | 47.8% | 62.0K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±17.7% | 44.5% | 107.4K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±24.1% | 46.8% | 25.1K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±25.5% | 45.3% | 2,501 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 22.5 P · 22.4K30 P · 16.6K37.5 C · 14.9K27.5 P · 12.4K30 C · 11.4K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 47.3% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 11.7% · median 10.4% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About On Holding AG
On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessories · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
ONON news
All news →Credit stress is threatening to unwind the AI bull. All eyes are on Oracle to hold the line
Investors are pushing up the cost of insurance against an Oracle default.
CNBC · 15:04 UTC ↗My wife says we can’t afford to retire. I vetoed her $8,000 trip to Italy. We’re in our 60s and have $4 million. Do I keep working?
“I worry about healthcare, long-term care, inflation, a long bear market and living to 95.”
MarketWatch · 15:00 UTC ↗Women may be at greater risk of AI job losses. Telephone switch operators and PCs show why
The history of technological progress suggests that as AI spreads, the employment impact will hit women more than men.
CNBC · 14:20 UTC ↗Builders slash prices on new homes as buyer traffic drops to 14-year low
Four in 10 home builders are cutting prices to boost demand, even as they face rising construction costs.
MarketWatch · 14:00 UTC ↗Treasury yields move higher as investors assess U.S. inflation backdrop
Treasury yields rose as investors weigh the domestic inflation and interest rate backdrop against broader geopolitical developments.
CNBC · 13:52 UTC ↗Related securities · Consumer Cyclical
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