JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Ikhtisar · Rantai opsi · Volatilitas · Riwayat pergerakan yang diharapkan · Laba
Cboe delayed options data · per 21:56 UTC · Angka yang diturunkan dari rantai opsi penuh (1,760 kontrak, 15 kedaluwarsa) · Persentil riwayat IV sendiri muncul setelah 60 hari pencatatan (30 sejauh ini)
Pergerakan yang diharapkan · Nov 20, 2026 (31 hari)
Metodologi →Dibaca dari harga opsi: straddle at-the-money berharga sebesar ini, sehingga pasar memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar sebesar itu ke salah satu arah pada tanggal ini. Ini adalah estimasi besarnya pergerakan, bukan prediksi arahnya.
Opsi memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar ±4.9% (rentang 319.31–352.11) oleh Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 16.40 @ strike 335 · ATM IV: 20.8%.
Distribusi probabilitas
Model & asumsi →Kurva ini menunjukkan kisaran hasil yang diperkirakan oleh model lognormal — yang menggunakan implied volatility saat ini — pada ekspirasi ini. Bagian yang diarsir: pita pergerakan yang diperkirakan.
| Level | vs harga | P(di atas)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(di bawah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 302.14 | -10% | 95.6% | 4.4% |
| 318.92 | -5% | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 335.71 | +0% | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 352.50 | +5% | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| 369.28 | +10% | 5.4% | 94.6% |
Probabilitas yang diestimasi model untuk harga berakhir di atas/di bawah setiap level saat kedaluwarsa: estimasi berdasarkan asumsi tertentu, bukan prediksi.
Penjelajah probabilitas
Geser slider ke level mana pun dan lihat perkiraan peluang dari model bahwa saham akan berakhir di atas atau di bawah level tersebut pada expirasi yang dipilih.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · Model lognormal dengan zero drift: estimasi, bukan prediksi. Asumsi
Expirasi
Buka rantai opsi →| Kedaluwarsa | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±1.7% | 22.9% | 32.3K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±2.9% | 21.8% | 17.6K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±3.9% | 22.5% | 6,779 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±4.3% | 21.1% | 6,025 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±4.9% | 20.8% | 89.8K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±5.3% | 20.6% | 4,134 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±7.0% | 21.5% | 92.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±8.9% | 22.4% | 145.8K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±11.9% | 23.1% | 55.7K |
Open interest per strike · Nov 20
Tempat posisi opsi terkonsentrasi. Batang teal adalah call, batang merah adalah put; garis putus-putus adalah harga saat ini.
Konsentrasi open interest terbesar (semua kedaluwarsa ≤ 60 hari): 360 C · 13.6K350 C · 13.1K320 P · 11.4K355 C · 9,048325 P · 9,043
Struktur tenor IV
Halaman volatilitas →Implied volatility at-the-money untuk setiap tanggal kedaluwarsa. Tonjolan di sekitar suatu tanggal sering menandai acara terjadwal yang sedang dihargai oleh pasar.
Kapan open interest kedaluwarsa?
Implied vs volatilitas terealisasi
HV dari penutupan harian tersimpan kami (disetahunkan); IV30 diinterpolasi dari rantai opsi. Metode
Harga, 60 sesi terakhir
Penutupan harian; Financial Modeling Prep.
Rekam jejak
Riwayat lengkap →Dari 121 perbandingan snapshot-versus-hasil yang direkam sejauh ini, penutupan berada di dalam kisaran yang diperkirakan 69.4% dari waktu ke waktu.
Reaksi pendapatan masa lalu
Rata-rata |reaksi| 3.3% · median 2.7% (21 laporan). Jendela waktu dua sesi penutupan ke penutupan; definisi
Tentang JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a bank and financial holding company in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It operates in three segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management. The company offers deposit, investment and lending products, and cash management; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit cards, payment solutions, travel services, merchant offers, lifestyle benefits, auto loans, and leases to consumers and small businesses through bank branches, ATMs, and digital and telephone banking. It also provides investment banking, market-making, financing, custody, and securities products and services; corporate strategy and structure advisory, equity and debt market capital-raising, and loan origination and syndication services; cash and derivative instruments, risk management solutions, prime brokerage, clearing, and research; and fund services, liquidity and trading services, and data solutions products for large corporations, financial institutions, merchants, start-ups, sm
Layanan Keuangan · Banks - Diversified · NYSE · Profil: Financial Modeling Prep
JPM berita
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HOOD · IV 66.1%SOFI · IV 58.9%MARA · IV 94.2%BAC · IV 23.5%NU · IV 63.1%COIN · IV 70.5%