Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 03:34 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (726 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Oct 30, 2026 (11 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.7% (range 12.62–15.63) by Oct 30, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.50 @ strike 14 · ATM IV: 77.0%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.72 | -10% | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 13.42 | -5% | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| 14.13 | +0% | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 14.84 | +5% | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| 15.54 | +10% | 21.8% | 78.2% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Oct 30, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±7.5% | 87.5% | 84.4K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±10.7% | 77.0% | 49.2K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±12.5% | 68.2% | 3,857 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±13.7% | 65.7% | 1,976 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±15.6% | 66.5% | 46.9K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±16.7% | 64.4% | 711 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±19.3% | 60.1% | 150.7K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±22.7% | 58.3% | 168.4K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±32.4% | 64.1% | 29.7K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±33.8% | 61.5% | 10.7K |
Open interest by strike · Oct 30
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 13 C · 81.8K15 C · 22.3K12 C · 20.9K12.5 C · 19.3K11 C · 14.2K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 86.8% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 10.0% · median 8.7% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. stands as a prominent North American manufacturer specializing in flat-rolled steel. The company's diverse product portfolio encompasses a wide array of carbon steel forms, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, hot-dip galvannealed, aluminized, enameling, and advanced high-strength steel. Additionally, they supply stainless steel, various steel plates, and specialized electrical steels (both grain-oriented and non-oriented). Beyond these core offerings, Cleveland-Cliffs produces tubular components, fabricated from carbon steel, stainless steel, and via electric resistance welding. Their tinplate division manufactures electrolytic tin-coated and chrome-coated sheets, alongside other tin mill products. The company also provides essential raw materials, ingots, rolled and cast blooms, hot-briquetted iron, and services like tooling and sampling. A key aspect of its operations is vertical integration, as the company owns and manages five iron ore mines located in Minnesota and Michigan. Cleveland-Cliffs serves a broad customer base, including the automotive industry, infrastructure and general manufacturing sectors, distributors,
Basic Materials · Steel · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
Related securities · Basic Materials
MP · IV 66.4%FCX · IV 47.9%VALE · IV 38.7%NEM · IV 40.9%AA · IV 45.6%RIO · IV 30.0%