Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:35 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (770 contracts, 15 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (29 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (31 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.8% (range 23.86–29.03) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 2.58 @ strike 26.5 · ATM IV: 41.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.80 | -10% | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 25.12 | -5% | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| 26.44 | -0% | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 27.77 | +5% | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| 29.09 | +10% | 19.8% | 80.2% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±3.6% | 43.0% | 16.3K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±6.4% | 46.2% | 27.7K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±8.1% | 45.5% | 8,573 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±9.1% | 43.3% | 2,834 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±9.8% | 41.4% | 108.3K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±11.5% | 44.3% | 665 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±13.1% | 40.8% | 254.4K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±16.3% | 42.0% | 252.3K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±21.5% | 42.8% | 92.2K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 178 | ±22.9% | 41.9% | 10.1K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 25 P · 49.2K27 P · 37.7K21 P · 23.4K22 P · 23.1K20 P · 18.2K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 121 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 58.7% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.3% · median 4.5% (22 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Carnival Corporation & plc
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a prominent global entity in the leisure travel sector. Its extensive fleet of vessels navigates to nearly 700 different ports globally, sailing under a diverse portfolio of acclaimed brands such as Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard. Beyond its core cruise operations, the company also provides port services and other related offerings. Its holdings include and it manages hotels, lodges, unique glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. Customers primarily book their cruises through a network of travel agencies, tour operators, vacation planners, and direct online channels. The corporation maintains a broad international presence, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and other global markets. It commands a significant fleet of 87 ships, collectively providing capacity for 223,000 passengers in lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was established in 1972 and has its headquarters situated in Miami, Florida.
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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