Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:33 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (798 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±6.4% (range 22.29–25.36) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 1.53 @ strike 24 · ATM IV: 37.7%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.44 | -10% | 91.0% | 9.0% |
| 22.63 | -5% | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| 23.82 | +0% | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 25.01 | +5% | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| 26.20 | +10% | 10.0% | 90.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±2.5% | 39.9% | 25.2K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±4.0% | 30.1% | 10.2K |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±6.4% | 37.7% | 280.7K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±8.1% | 39.7% | 7,510 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±10.8% | 46.8% | 9,163 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±11.1% | 43.6% | 604 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±12.6% | 45.2% | 67.0K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 78 | ±16.0% | 43.8% | 72.2K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±19.4% | 45.2% | 190.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±21.8% | 44.7% | 240.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 197 | ±25.3% | 43.6% | 36.0K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 26 P · 49.4K24 P · 43.7K30 C · 24.9K25 P · 19.1K27 P · 17.6K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 6.2% · median 4.5% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Carnival Corporation & plc
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a prominent global entity in the leisure travel sector. Its extensive fleet of vessels navigates to nearly 700 different ports globally, sailing under a diverse portfolio of acclaimed brands such as Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard. Beyond its core cruise operations, the company also provides port services and other related offerings. Its holdings include and it manages hotels, lodges, unique glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches. Customers primarily book their cruises through a network of travel agencies, tour operators, vacation planners, and direct online channels. The corporation maintains a broad international presence, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and other global markets. It commands a significant fleet of 87 ships, collectively providing capacity for 223,000 passengers in lower berths. Carnival Corporation & plc was established in 1972 and has its headquarters situated in Miami, Florida.
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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