Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 15:33 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,992 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±5.6% (range 417.90–467.50) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 24.80 @ strike 442.5 · ATM IV: 33.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 398.43 | -10% | 93.6% | 6.4% |
| 420.56 | -5% | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| 442.70 | +0% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 464.83 | +5% | 22.6% | 77.4% |
| 486.97 | +10% | 7.5% | 92.5% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±2.1% | 35.4% | 15.6K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±4.3% | 34.0% | 2,177 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±5.6% | 33.4% | 44.7K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±6.7% | 33.2% | 3,432 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±7.7% | 33.5% | 2,013 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±8.4% | 32.7% | 371 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±9.2% | 33.0% | 26.6K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50 | — | — | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 78 | ±12.3% | 32.7% | 7,089 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±13.6% | 31.5% | 9,640 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±14.9% | 30.8% | 28.4K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 197 | ±18.3% | 31.4% | 3,898 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 440 C · 8,519310 P · 7,249460 P · 4,135420 P · 3,910460 C · 3,843
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 4.6% · median 4.3% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Amgen Inc.
Amgen Inc., established in 1980 and headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California, is a global biotechnology leader focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing, and delivering groundbreaking human medicines. The company's scientific endeavors span several critical therapeutic categories, including inflammatory conditions, oncology and hematology, bone health, cardiovascular diseases, nephrology, and neuroscience. Its extensive portfolio features a range of significant pharmaceutical products. Notable examples include Enbrel, prescribed for conditions like plaque psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriatic arthritis; Neulasta, which helps cancer patients by reducing the risk of infection linked to a low white blood cell count; Prolia, utilized in postmenopausal women to combat osteoporosis; and Xgeva, designed to prevent skeletal-related complications. Otezla offers relief for adult patients suffering from plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease. Aranesp addresses anemia and low red blood cell counts, while KYPROLIS is employed to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. Furthermore, Repatha plays a vital role
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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