American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:33 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (848 contracts, 17 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (3 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±7.4% (range 12.18–14.12) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 0.975 @ strike 13 · ATM IV: 44.3%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.84 | -10% | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| 12.49 | -5% | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 13.15 | +0% | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 13.81 | +5% | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| 14.47 | +10% | 13.4% | 86.6% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±2.6% | 44.8% | 54.5K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±4.0% | 31.0% | 18.0K |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±7.4% | 44.3% | 441.6K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±7.9% | 39.4% | 13.6K |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±9.4% | 41.1% | 8,609 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±11.0% | 43.2% | 950 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±12.3% | 44.4% | 26.6K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 78 | ±17.0% | 45.9% | 134.7K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±19.8% | 46.1% | 258.7K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±23.2% | 48.2% | 413.2K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 169 | ±24.5% | 45.4% | 16.3K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 197 | ±26.1% | 44.7% | 62.2K |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 12 P · 74.3K10 P · 66.8K17 C · 34.6K8 P · 34.2K14 C · 26.7K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 5.4% · median 4.9% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About American Airlines Group Inc.
American Airlines Group Inc. functions as a prominent network air carrier, delivering scheduled air transportation for both passengers and freight. Its operations are anchored by key hubs located in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. Additionally, it expands its global reach through strategic partner gateways situated in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, the company maintained a substantial mainline fleet comprising 865 aircraft. This enterprise, established in 1930 and headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, previously operated under the name AMR Corporation until its rebranding to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013.
Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Services · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
AAL news
All news →Explainer: Venezuela's heavy crude could be swapped for American oil to fill emergency reserve, Wright says
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that oil from a recently struck dealwith Venezuela will be used to replenish the Strategic…
Reuters · Sep 02, 23:59 UTC ↗Here’s another way rising bond yields could take a bite out of Americans’ wallets
Rising yields are a threat to the “Magnificent Seven.” Here’s why that could hurt U.S. consumers.
MarketWatch · Sep 02, 19:15 UTC ↗Here’s how much Americans rely on Social Security — at all income levels
Social Security is really important for older Americans. It needs to be tweaked, not restructured.
MarketWatch · Sep 02, 16:20 UTC ↗American Airlines continues premium push with redesigned Boeing planes
American Airlines is adding its most premium seats to its largest planes, which it uses for its most popular long international flights.
CNBC · Sep 02, 14:00 UTC ↗What Does a Bond Selloff Mean for American Consumers?
A jittery Treasury market and the prospect of Fed rate increases risk making life more expensive for already cost-pressured Americans.
WSJ · Sep 02, 09:21 UTC ↗Related securities — Industrials
BA · IV 28.7%SMR · IV 75.9%CAT · IV 36.0%UAL · IV 42.4%DE · IV 32.6%DAL · IV 34.2%