AAL historial de movimiento esperado American Airlines Group Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango86%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado86%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.7%
Error medio abs.4.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 11.70 | ±7.5% | 10.82–12.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 11.89 | ±7.0% | 11.06–12.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 11.79 | ±7.3% | 10.92–12.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 12.50 | ±7.0% | 11.63–13.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 12.76 | ±7.7% | 11.78–13.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 12.79 | ±8.8% | 11.67–13.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 12.86 | ±9.4% | 11.64–14.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 12.99 | ±9.2% | 11.80–14.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 12.84 | ±9.4% | 11.63–14.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 12.95 | ±10.0% | 11.65–14.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 13.11 | ±10.5% | 11.73–14.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 13.64 | ±11.9% | 12.01–15.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 13.63 | ±12.0% | 12.00–15.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 13.57 | ±11.9% | 11.95–15.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 12.98 | ±12.3% | 11.38–14.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 12.98 | ±12.4% | 11.38–14.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 12.72 | ±13.5% | 11.00–14.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 12.78 | ±12.1% | 11.23–14.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 13.12 | ±12.8% | 11.44–14.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 13.01 | ±13.0% | 11.32–14.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 12.85 | ±13.0% | 11.19–14.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 12.93 | ±12.1% | 11.36–14.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 12.96 | ±15.5% | 10.95–14.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 13.14 | ±12.7% | 11.47–14.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 13.14 | ±13.4% | 11.39–14.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 12.98 | ±13.6% | 11.21–14.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 11.70 | ±8.5% | 10.70–12.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 11.89 | ±8.5% | 10.88–12.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 11.79 | ±8.7% | 10.76–12.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 12.50 | ±8.7% | 11.41–13.59 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | -0.1% | dentro | 11.89 → 11.88 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +0.8% | dentro | 11.79 → 11.88 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -5.0% | fuera | 12.50 → 11.88 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -6.9% | fuera | 12.76 → 11.88 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -7.1% | fuera | 12.79 → 11.88 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -7.6% | fuera | 12.86 → 11.88 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -8.6% | fuera | 12.99 → 11.88 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -7.5% | fuera | 12.84 → 11.88 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -8.3% | fuera | 12.95 → 11.88 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -9.4% | fuera | 13.11 → 11.88 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -12.9% | fuera | 13.64 → 11.88 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -12.8% | fuera | 13.63 → 11.88 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -12.5% | fuera | 13.57 → 11.88 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -8.5% | dentro | 12.98 → 11.88 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -8.5% | dentro | 12.98 → 11.88 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -6.6% | dentro | 12.72 → 11.88 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -7.0% | dentro | 12.78 → 11.88 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -9.5% | dentro | 13.12 → 11.88 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -8.7% | dentro | 13.01 → 11.88 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -7.5% | dentro | 12.85 → 11.88 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -8.1% | dentro | 12.93 → 11.88 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -8.3% | dentro | 12.96 → 11.88 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -9.6% | dentro | 13.14 → 11.88 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -9.6% | dentro | 13.14 → 11.88 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -8.5% | dentro | 12.98 → 11.88 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -9.4% | dentro | 13.11 → 11.88 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | -8.5% | dentro | 12.99 → 11.88 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -11.6% | dentro | 13.44 → 11.88 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 12.76 → 12.76 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 12.79 → 12.76 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -0.8% | dentro | 12.86 → 12.76 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -1.8% | dentro | 12.99 → 12.76 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -0.6% | dentro | 12.84 → 12.76 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -1.5% | dentro | 12.95 → 12.76 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -2.7% | dentro | 13.11 → 12.76 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -6.5% | dentro | 13.64 → 12.76 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -6.4% | dentro | 13.63 → 12.76 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -6.0% | dentro | 13.57 → 12.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -1.7% | dentro | 12.98 → 12.76 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -1.7% | dentro | 12.98 → 12.76 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +0.3% | dentro | 12.72 → 12.76 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -0.2% | dentro | 12.78 → 12.76 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 13.12 → 12.76 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -1.9% | dentro | 13.01 → 12.76 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -0.7% | dentro | 12.85 → 12.76 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | -1.3% | dentro | 12.93 → 12.76 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.5% | -1.5% | dentro | 12.96 → 12.76 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -2.9% | dentro | 13.14 → 12.76 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -2.9% | dentro | 13.14 → 12.76 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -1.7% | dentro | 12.98 → 12.76 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -2.7% | dentro | 13.11 → 12.76 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | -1.8% | dentro | 12.99 → 12.76 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -5.0% | dentro | 13.44 → 12.76 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 12.95 → 12.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -1.3% | dentro | 13.11 → 12.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -5.1% | dentro | 13.64 → 12.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -5.1% | dentro | 13.63 → 12.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -4.6% | dentro | 13.57 → 12.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -0.3% | dentro | 12.98 → 12.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -0.3% | dentro | 12.98 → 12.94 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.